The seminar is part of the activities of FIW, the Centre of Competence in International Economics. Regular lecture series on current issues in international economics.

Location: wiiw Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche, Rahlgasse 3, 1060 Wien

Monday, 12 June 2017 - 3.00 - 4.30 pm

wiiw Rahlgasse 3, 1060 Vienna

Konstantin Wacker

University of Mainz (JGU), Germany

The presentation is based on a paper co-authored with Jan Trenczek (University of Mainz)

Abstract

In this paper, we look at patterns of vertical (‘within-product’) vs. horizontal (‘between’ products) export specialisation using unit values on the 6-digit level.

We start by documenting widespread convergence in products’ unit values as a proxy for export quality. The robustness of this result raises the question why countries do not converge in income levels. We then document that products usually exported by developing countries have shorter quality ladders. This limits the scope for vertical specialization and catch-up, and suggests that vertical specialization can only be one aspect of countries’ upgrading strategy that has to be complemented by horizontal upgrading across goods and sectors.

Against this background, we analyse countries’ vertical vs. horizontal specialization dynamics from the mid-1990s until 2007. Our main contribution in this regard is a methodological decomposition of countries' aggregate export unit values into vertical upgrading and horizontal sector dynamics, reflecting that countries can either upgrade each product in their export portfolio, or they can increasingly move towards sectors with higher unit value perspectives. We then apply this decomposition to trends in aggregate unit values of 154 countries. Although both dimensions are important in countries’ dynamic export pattern, the latter seems to be quantitatively dominating, with entry and exit of products playing an important role as well.

Keywords:    Unit value, convergence, structural change in exports.

JEL Codes:  F14, F43.

Präsentation

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After the seminar there will be the opportunity for the speaker and the audience for further discussions, accompanied by drinks and snacks.

Monday, 15 May 2017, 14 p.m.

wiiw Rahlgasse 3, 1060 Vienna

Tristan Kohl

University of Groningen, The Netherlands

The presentation is based on a paper co-authored with Steven Brakman (University of Groningen) and Harry Garretsen (University of Groningen).

Astract

The United Kingdom has opted to leave the European Union. The trade and welfare consequences of this decision are large; most studies predict a trade and welfare loss for both the UK and the EU. The UK parliament has indicated that it aims for new and ambitious trade agreements following Brexit, but has not been explicit what type of trade agreements it envisions (except that it should be broad) or with  whom specifically. In this paper, we consider the UK’s options. We first confirm, in line with existing studies, that the negative trade consequences of Brexit are substantial, especially for the UK and also for the EU. After reviewing all potential options, we have a simple answer to the question whether the UK has an alternative for the existing trade agreement with the EU. The answer is: No. Only a trade agreement with the EU can compensate for the negative trade consequences of Brexit.

Keywords:      Brexit, Gravity Model, Trade predictions.

JEL Codes:    F13, F14.

We kindly ask you to registerfor the event. Participation is free of charge.

After the seminar there will be the opportunity for the speaker and the audience for further discussions, accompanied by drinks and snacks.

Monday, 24 April 2017, 3.00 - 4:30 pm

wiiw Rahlgasse 3, 1060 Vienna

Alexander-Nikolai Sandkamp

ifo Zentrum für Außenwirtschaft, Munich

Abstract

Trade protection is on the rise again and anti-dumping (AD) duties remain a common instrument in this respect, especially against China. This paper uses Chinese customs data to investigate the effects of AD duties on Chinese exporters, exploiting firm level data to address endogeneity concerns linked to trade protection. We find that the effects of AD duties differ strongly across destination markets and industries. Our empirical results show that the European and US markets react very differently to the imposition of duties, so that existing findings based on US data cannot easily be generalised to other countries. We find evidence that AD duties tend to drive some exporters out, while the remaining ones grow larger, implying that AD instruments may not be capable of protecting domestic industries in the long run. Finally, we find that AD duties lead to market entry of Chinese exporters into third countries as well as to increased exports to these countries by established exporters.

Keywords:      Anti-dumping, China, Trade, Firm Heterogeneity.

JEL Codes:    F12, F13, F14, D22.

We kindly ask you to register for the event. Participation is free of charge.

After the seminar there will be the opportunity for the speaker and the audience for further discussions, accompanied by drinks and snacks.

This seminar series is an activity in the framework of FIW ('Forschungsschwerpunkt Internationale Wirtschaft'), which is a project designed to build a centre of excellence in research on International Economics, funded by the Austrian Ministry of Science, Research and Economy (BMWFW).

The seminar programme is regularly updated. Please visit the wiiw or FIW website for the current version of the programme. Papers and presentation slides, as far as available, are posted on our webpage after the respective seminars.

Monday  20 March 2017, 3.00 - 4:30 p.m.

wiiw Rahlgasse 3, 1060 Vienna

Yvonne Wolfmayr

Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO)

The presentation is based on a paper co-authored with Elisabeth Christen (WIFO) and Michael Pfaffermayr (WIFO, University of Innsbruck).

Abstract
Focusing on services firms and services trade in Austria, this paper provides new insights into the firm level employment effects of import competition at the industry level and its interactions with firm heterogeneity in productivity and size. We use firm level data from the Austrian Social Security database (ASSD) and apply a two part model that permits an integrated treatment of firm exit and firm growth and the resulting net changes in employment within a specific service sector. The results imply that higher levels of international competition increase the probability of firm exit and decrease employment growth in surviving firms with the impact inversely related to firm productivity and firm size as predicted by theory. In addition, we find that the geographical source of import competition is important, as the impact of trade on job creation are highest when trading partners are Central and Eastern European countries. Furthermore, the results imply that employment changes due to firm exits contribute an important part to the overall trade-induced change in employment and emphasize the importance to integrate the impact of firm exits into the analysis of employment impacts of trade.

Keywords: Firm dynamics, Job creation, DHS growth rate, Import competition, Services

JEL Codes: D22, F16, J23, L25, L80

We kindly ask you to register for the event. Participation is free of charge.

After the seminar there will be the opportunity for the speaker and the audience for further discussions, accompanied by drinks and snacks.