The seminar is part of the activities of FIW, the Centre of Competence in International Economics. Regular lecture series on current issues in international economics.

Location: wiiw, the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, Rahlgasse 3, 1060 Vienna.

Monday, 17 December 2018, 3 pm

wiiw, Rahlgasse 3, 1060 Vienna

Jürgen Amann

University of Nottingham

This presentation is based on two ongoing projects with UNIDO.

Abstract

In our work we revisit the empirical literature on structural transformation. Our analysis focuses both on the issue of structural changes within manufacturing and also provides evidence of the changing role of manufacturing in the wider economy. This is done by means of carefully disaggregating and analysing structural change patterns based on a new and comprehensive data base for the post war era taking into account various sources of heterogeneities and variations all of which are discussed in the context of their theoretical ramification. Our analysis indicates a high degree of sector-specific heterogeneity within manufacturing that is also subject to significant variation over time.

We furthermore examine the patterns of structural change for a particular set of advanced economies and put special emphasis on the most recent periods characterised by a high and growing degree of global market integration. We contextualise the link between productivity growth and the structural transformation of manufacturing and service industries, and explore potential channels of heterogeneity of the observed patterns across different specifications. Our study finds that deindustrialisation patterns in manufacturing underwent significant structural changes in the mid-1990s and specifically that the positive link between manufacturing productivity and restructuring accelerated in the post-1995 period, whereas similar patterns were not observed for the service sector. Moreover, low-technology industries in manufacturing and net-importing countries, in particular, seem to be most severely affected by the recent wave of Asia-led globalisation.

Keywords: Deindustrialisation, employment, globalisation, industrial policy, industrialisation, international trade, structural change

JEL classification: F62, L60, O40, O57

After the seminar there will be the opportunity for the speaker and the audience for further discussions, accompanied by drinks and snacks.

We kindly ask you to register for the event. Participation is free of charge.

Monday, 12 November 2018, 3 pm

wiiw, Rahlgasse 3, 1060 Vienna

Michael Pfaffermayr

University of Innsbruck, Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO)

The presentation is based on a paper co-authored with Harald Oberhofer (WIFO, WU).

Abstract

This paper proposes a new panel data structural gravity approach for estimating the trade and welfare effects of Brexit. The suggested Constrained Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Estimator exhibits some useful properties for trade policy analysis and allows to obtain estimates and confidence intervals which are consistent with structural trade theory. Assuming different counterfactual post-Brexit scenarios, our main findings suggest that UK's exports of goods to the EU are likely to decline within a range between 7.2 percent and 45.7 percent (EU's exports to UK by 5.9 percent to 38.2 percent) six years after the Brexit has taken place. For the UK, the negative trade effects are only partially offset by an increase in domestic goods trade and trade with third countries, inducing a decline in UK's real income between 1.4 percent and 5.7 percent under the hard Brexit scenario. The estimated welfare effects for the EU are negligible in magnitude and statistically not different from zero.

Paper and Powerpoint presentation, as far as available, are posted on this page after the seminar.

Keywords: Constrained Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Estimation; Panel Data; International Trade; Structural Gravity Estimation; Trade Policy; Brexit

JEL classification: F10; F15; C13; C50

After the seminar there will be the opportunity for the speaker and the audience for further discussions, accompanied by drinks and snacks.

We kindly ask you to register for the event. Participation is free of charge.

Monday, 22 October 2018, 3 pm

wiiw, Rahlgasse 3, 1060 Vienna

Fanny Dellinger

University of Innsbruck and University of Vienna

Abstract

A new and simple approach on how to forecast and replicate poverty trends based on the growth elasticity of poverty (GEP) and the inequality elasticity of poverty (IEP) is developed. I use an analytically derived elasticity and combine it with data from household surveys, i.e. mean income, inequality and growth rates are all taken from household survey data. The novelty of the approach is twofold: The income distribution is approximated by the Fisk distribution and instead of National Accounting System (NAS) data only household survey data is used. I perform an illustrative ‘test’ of the model by replicating past poverty trends based on the survey data, and I find that the model generally performs well, except for highly unequal middle income countries. I then apply the model to forecast future poverty trends and to assess whether the first target of the Sustainable Development Goals, i.e. to eliminate poverty until 2030, can be reached in the different world regions. My results show that in East Asia, the target will most likely be reached. Also in Latin America and South Asia, poverty is projected to be very low by 2030. It will be very difficult to reach the target in Sub-Saharan Africa.

After the seminar there will be the opportunity for the speaker and the audience for further discussions, accompanied by drinks and snacks.

Monday, 17 September 2018, 3:00 pm

wiiw Rahlgasse 3, 1060 Vienna

Human Capital, Technology Diffusion and Total Factor Productivity Growth in Regions

Anja Kukuvec

Vienna University of Economics and Business

Abstract

Until recently, the geographical coverage of data sets on the sub-national level was usually rather limited and hardly included regions of less developed economies. Considering new regional data collection, this has started to change, thereby paving the way for new regional growth analysis. Employing such an extensive data set, this paper investigates the role of human capital and technology spillovers on regional total factor productivity growth for 569 regions in 30 countries. Nonlinearities in the effects of the explanatory variables as well as spatial spillovers caused by a spatial autoregressive process of the dependent variable and the explanatory variables are considered in the estimation model. The findings confirm a robust direct impact of technological catch-up on regional total factor productivity growth, where the catch-up speed increases with increasing levels of human capital. This supports the common hypothesis of an educated labor force enhancing technology adoption from abroad. Furthermore, positive spatial spillovers of technology levels are observed.

Paper and Powerpoint presentation, as far as available, are posted on this page after the seminar.

After the seminar there will be the opportunity for the speaker and the audience for further discussions, accompanied by drinks and snacks.

We kindly ask you to register for the event. Participation is free of charge.

Registration

Mittwoch, 30. Mai 2018, 15:00 Uhr

wiiw Rahlgasse 3, 1060 Vienna

Domestic Barriers to Internal and International Trade: New Evidence for Brazil, 1920-1940

Michael Huberman

Université de Montréal, Canada

Abstract
We study the effect of changes in domestic, regional, and international (transatlantic) trade costs on the competition between foreign and domestic manufacturers in interwar Brazil. In the great wave of globalization before 1914, international transport costs were low and domestic trade costs high. The interwar period saw a reversal: international trade costs spiked and the Brazilian state intervened to eliminate internal barriers. As the domestic market integrated, manufacturers, increasingly concentrated in the São Paulo region, extended their reach. Our claim is that the movement in trade costs provides a more compelling explanation of the emergence of domestic manufacture, its location and expansion, than does heightened tariff protection or accommodating exchange-rate policy.

We kindly ask you to register for the event. Participation is free of charge.

After the seminar there will be the opportunity for the speaker and the audience for further discussions, accompanied by drinks and snacks.

Monday, 4 June 2018, 11 am – 12:30 pm
wiiw, Rahlgasse 3, 1060 Vien

On the relevance of double tax treaties

 Andrzej Stasio

Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU)

The presentation is based on a paper co-authored with Kunka Petkova (WU) and Martin Zagler (UPO University of Eastern Piedmont).

Abstract

This paper investigates the effects of double tax treaties (DTTs) on foreign direct investment (FDI) after controlling for their relevance in the presence of treaty shopping. DTTs cannot be considered a bilateral issue, but must be viewed as a network, since FDI can ?ow from home to host country through one or more conduit countries. Accounting for treaty shopping, we calculate the shortest (i.e. the cheapest) tax distance between any two countries allowing the corporate income to be channeled through intermediate jurisdictions. We consider the relevance of tax treaties vis-à-vis the domestic law and the entire tax treaties network and show that tax treaties that reduce the direct tax distance, both against domestic law and the entire existing treaty network, will increase FDI. Such a relevant treaty will increase direct FDI by roughly 20%. The effect increases with reductions in the direct tax cost and we can quantify this effect at almost 8% for a 10-percentage-point tax reduction below the minimum rate in the network. We also ?nd that a treaty can lead to more direct FDI if the cheaper route is complicated and involves more than one conduit country.

JEL Codes:  F21, F23, F53, H25, H26, H73, H87, K34.

We kindly ask you to register for the event. Participation is free of charge.

This seminar series is an activity of the Research Centre International Economics FIW, which is a project of WIFO, wiiw and WSR on behalf of the Federal Ministry for Digital and Economic Affairs (BMDW). The FIW cooperation with the Vienna University of Economics and Business, the University Vienna, the Johannes Kepler University Linz and the University of Innsbruck is supported by the Federal Ministry of Education, Science and Research (BMBWF).

The seminar programme is regularly updated. Please visit the wiiw or FIW website for the current version of the programme. Papers and presentation slides, as far as available, are posted on our webpage after the respective seminars.

Wednesday, 2 May 2018, 3:00 p.m.

wiiw, Rahlgasse 3, 1060 Vienna

Globalized firms: The gender employment gap and the transmission of attitudes towards female work across countries

Carolina Lennon
University of Economics and Business (WU)



**Attention: Date has changed! New date is May 2.**

the presentation is based on a paper co-authored with Alyssa Schneebaum (WU).

Abstract

The question of whether globalization and expanding markets serve as a mechanism through which greater gender equality is achieved is one that has been debated heavily from a theoretical perspective. Much of the empirical literature to date suggests that there is generally a positive relationship between globalization and women's labor market outcomes, but this finding depends on country, time frame, and exact outcome measured. Along with these open empirical questions, perhaps the most important shortcoming in the literature is the omission of an analysis of the mechanisms through which globalization could affect gender equality. In this paper, we test if globalized firms have helped to reduce the employment gender gap in developing and transition economies and if they have acted as a catalyst for the transmission and convergence of attitudes towards female work. We define global firms in two ways: first, by a firm's level of foreign ownership, and second, based on whether or not the firm exports. Using unique firm-level data for companies in more than 100 countries between 2006 and 2016, this will be the first paper in the literature to look at the effect of globalization on gender equality in such a broad number of countries. Preliminary results show that global firms hire relatively more women than non-global firms after controlling for a rich set of firm's characteristics. We also find that whom you trade with and from where you receive FDI matters. As such, firms in economies that trade with or receive FDI from countries with a higher degree of gender equality are themselves more likely to have a greater share of female workers.

Paper and Powerpoint presentation, as far as available, are posted on this page after the seminar.

JEL classification: D22; F16; F23; F66; J16; J71

This seminar series is an activity in the framework of FIW ('Forschungsschwerpunkt Internationale Wirtschaft'), which is a project designed to build a centre of excellence in research on International Economics, funded by the Austrian Ministry of Digital and Economic Affairs (BMDW).

The seminar programme is regularly updated. Please visit the wiiw or FIW website for the current version of the programme. Papers and presentation slides, as far as available, are posted on our webpage after the respective seminars.

Monday, 26 March 2018, 3.00 – 4.30 pm
wiiw, Rahlgasse 3, 1060 Vienna

Credit dynamics in CESEE since the global financial crisis: adjustment back to equilibrium levels?

Mariarosaria Comunale, Bank of Lithuania

The presentation is based on a paper co-authored with Markus Eller and Mathias Lahnsteiner.

Abstract

During the period of rapid credit expansion that was observed in most Central, Eastern and Southeastern European (CESEE) countries before the 2008/2009 global financial crisis (GFC) several papers had addressed the question whether these dynamics are still sustainable or constitute overshooting compared to equilibrium levels, raising concerns with regard to macrofinancial stability. With the benefit of hindsight, a consensus has emerged that pre-crisis credit developments had been on an excessive path in several CESEE countries. In particular, the substantial increases of nonperforming loans (NPLs) in the years after 2008 suggest that credit dynamics had been too much of a good thing in many CESEE countries. In the wake of the GFC, credit growth slowed down remarkably or even turned negative in CESEE, before recovering or accelerating again more recently. Against this background, the question arises whether credit levels have eventually turned back to equilibrium levels or whether under- or overshooting tendencies can be identified.

Our paper picks up this debate and offers several methodological improvements compared to existing literature to come up with an assessment how credit levels and growth rates in different CESEE EU countries have evolved compared to the underlying equilibria. Both a static (for levels) and dynamic (for growth rates) panel setups are applied. The role of global factors and cross-country spillovers between CESEE and from the other EU member states gets particular interest. In contrast to previous work, that focused on domestic bank credit to the private sector by using it as the dependent variable in the empirical analysis, we include direct cross-border credit to the private sector in our study. Thereby we capture an important source of financing in particular for companies in CESEE, which is a very close substitute for domestic bank credit.

Paper and Powerpoint presentation, as far as available, are posted on this page after the seminar.

Keywords: credit growth, equilibrium credit, fundamental credit, CESEE

JEL classification: C23, E44, E51, G21

We kindly ask you to register for the event. Participation is free of charge.

This seminar series is an activity in the framework of FIW ('Forschungsschwerpunkt Internationale Wirtschaft'), which is a project designed to build a centre of excellence in research on International Economics, funded by the Austrian Ministry of Digital and Econmic Affairs (BMDW).

The seminar programme is regularly updated. Please visit the wiiw or FIW website for the current version of the programme. Papers and presentation slides, as far as available, are posted on our webpage after the respective seminars.