The seminar is part of the activities of FIW, the Centre of Competence in International Economics. Regular lecture series on current issues in international economics.

Location: wiiw, the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, Rahlgasse 3, 1060 Vienna.

Monday, 19 February 2018, 3.00 – 4.30 pm
wiiw, Rahlgasse 3, 1060 Vienna

International Value-Added Linkages in Development Accounting

Alejandro Cuñat (University of Vienna and CESifo)

The presentation is based on a paper co-authored with Robert Zymek (University of Edinburgh and CESifo).

Abstract

We generalise the traditional development-accounting framework to an open-economy setting. In addition to factor endowments and productivity, relative factor costs emerge as a source of real-income variation across countries. These are determined by bilateral trade frictions (which underpin the patterns of “international value-added linkages”) and the global distribution of factor endowments and ?nal expenditures. We use information on endowments, trade balances and value-added trade to back out the relative factor costs of 40 major economies in a theory-consistent manner. This reduces the variation in “residual” TFP required to explain the observed per-capita income di?erences by more than one half.

JEL Codes:  E01, F15, F40, F62, F63.

Keywords:    world input-output, development accounting, transfer e?ect.

We kindly ask you to registerfor the event. Participation is free of charge.

This seminar series is an activity in the framework of FIW ('Forschungsschwerpunkt Internationale Wirtschaft'), which is a project designed to build a centre of excellence in research on International Economics, funded by the Austrian Ministry of Science, Research and Economy (BMWFW).

The seminar programme is regularly updated. Please visit the wiiw or FIW website for the current version of the programme. Papers and presentation slides, as far as available, are posted on our webpage after the respective seminars.

Montag, 11. Dezember 2017, 15:00 Uhr

wiiw Rahlgasse 3, 1060 Vienna

Reassessing the gains from trade liberalisation using the synthetic control method

Florian Kaulich

Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU)

AbstractThis study investigates the effect of trade liberalisation on GDP per capita in a global panel of countries. While the theoretical literature broadly suggests a positive impact, the empirical verification of this relationship is complicated by the well-known problem of endogeneity. A relatively new approach to overcome this limitation is the synthetic control method (SCM), which compares the post-liberalisation GDP trajectory of a country that liberalised with the trajectory of a combination of similar economies that did not liberalise. Although this method is widely praised for being data-driven, transparent and less prone to specification searching, it has recently come under heavy criticism for actually failing to meet any of these criteria. The aim of this study is, therefore, to reassess the trade-income-relationship in light of the current debate on the possibilities and limitations of SCM, and to extend earlier studies by estimating the average effect of liberalisation for different groups of countries.

Keywords: international trade, liberalisation, income growth, synthetic control method

JEL classification: F14, F43, F62

After the seminar there will be the opportunity for the speaker and the audience for further discussions, accompanied by drinks and snacks.

Tuesday, 14 November 2017, 11.00 a.m. – 12.30 pm

wiiw, Rahlgasse 3, 1060 Vienna

The Heterogeneous Impact of Brexit: Early Indications from the FTSE

 Ronald B. Davies University College Dublin (UCD), Ireland

Abstract

The UK's decision to leave the EU is surrounded by several studies simulating its potential e?ects. We take an alternative approach by examining how news of Brexit a?ected expectations as embodied in stock returns using a two-part estimation process. While most firms' prices fell following news of the referendum's result, there was considerable heterogeneity in their relative changes. We show that this heterogeneity can be explained by the firm's global value chain, with heavily European firms doing relatively worse. For firms with few imported intermediates, this was partially o?set by a greater Sterling depreciation. These changes were primarily in the first two days and highly persistent. Understanding these movements gives a better understanding of Brexit's potential e?ects.

Keywords:    Global Value Chain; Event Study; Brexit.

JEL Codes:  F15; F23; G14

We kindly ask you to register for the event. Participation is free of charge.

This seminar series is an activity in the framework of FIW ('Forschungsschwerpunkt Internationale Wirtschaft'), which is a project designed to build a centre of excellence in research on International Economics, funded by the Austrian Ministry of Science, Research and Economy (BMWFW).

The seminar programme is regularly updated. Please visit the wiiw or FIW website for the current version of the programme. Papers and presentation slides, as far as available, are posted on our webpage after the respective seminars.

Monday, 23 October 2017, 3.00 – 4.30 pm
wiiw, Rahlgasse 3, 1060 Vienna

Evolve to survive:
Firm adjustment to customs-driven administrative barriers

Evgenii Monastyrenko

Paris School of Economics

The presentation is based on a paper co-authored with Cristina Daniela Herghelegiu (Paris School of Economics).

Abstract

Over the last decades, tariffs have been substantially reduced through multilateral and regional negotiations. The research and policy agendas have shifted towards less standard trade barriers. Exporters all over the world must comply with complex regulations, prepare the necessary paperwork, have their shipments inspected and be subject to lengthy customs clearance. Uncertainty associated with the time delays induced by customs clearance and uncertainty in delivery conditions may negatively affect trade.

This paper explores the role of uncertainty in trade associated with both customs-specific time delays and delivery conditions. We employ a highly detailed dataset on the export from Russia, over the 2011-2015 period. By exploiting the customs clearance process in Russia, we identify the causal impact of customs-driven administrative barriers on the extensive and intensive margins of export flows. We show that time delays induced by customs clearance negatively affect exports, even after controlling for other potentially confounding factors. Overall, we observe significant heterogeneity in stringency of customs-related administrative barriers across customs control points at the border. We further explore the role of Incoterms, which are used as a tool to delimit the risks associated with transportation and delivery of goods. We show that the more risks are passed to the buyers, the higher the export value is. Meanwhile, in the cases where exporters take full control over export clearance, the export margins are significantly higher.

Keywords:    Customs, Administrative barriers, Uncertainty, Export margins.

JEL Codes:  F10, F13, F14.

We kindly ask you to register for the event. Participation is free of charge.

This seminar series is an activity in the framework of FIW ('Forschungsschwerpunkt Internationale Wirtschaft'), which is a project designed to build a centre of excellence in research on International Economics, funded by the Austrian Ministry of Science, Research and Economy (BMWFW).

The seminar programme is regularly updated. Please visit the wiiw or FIW website for the current version of the programme. Papers and presentation slides, as far as available, are posted on our webpage after the respective seminars.