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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2012_13/04-ResearchReport-KolandSchoenhartSchmid.pdf

Abstract: TTRIOPOL studies the role of domestic bioenergy potentials for agriculture, the wider economy and international trade for Austria. In particular, agricultural biomass pro-duction can contribute to significant shares of energy provision in Austria. A detailed scenario is developed to explore the opportunities and challenges of enhanced domestic biomass production based on short rotation forestry (SRF) for heat supply which is currently among the most competitive technologies. To that end, TRIOPOL establishes a model linkage between a sectoral supply-model for Austrian agriculture and a national small open economy general equilibrium model. Model results show that a biomass premium of 65 € per ton dry matter is required to support 250,000 ha of SRF on cropland in Austria by 2020. The thus provided bioheat covers some 33 petajoule (PJ) heat energy demand in Austria; taking into account the likely rising of energy prices by 2020, this number rises to 47 PJ. Substantial land use changes may also be compensated by increases in land use intensity and as well as changes in imports and exports. Scenario results suggest that domestic food production of non-meat commodities falls by 1.3%. The sector meat products profits from the high competitiveness of Austrian livestock production and responds by a slight increase in net exports. The results of the quantitative analysis shall support the scientific and political debate on securing food and energy supply as well as economic development goals.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_118-Guerreiro.pdf

Abstract: This paper is interested in linking formally external disequilibriums to the sovereign debt crisis the EMU is experiencing since 2009. Relying on the CHEER approach that connects the goods market to the capital market, we show that when a country belonging to a monetary union faces external disequilibrium relative to its main partner, the corresponding interest rate differential increases. Moreover, when these imbalances are persistent, it may trigger a balance of payments crisis. Our findings indicate that this phenomenon seems to be at play for the European countries under international assistance.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2012_13/04-PolicyNote-KolandSchoenhartSchmid.pdf

Abstract: TTRIOPOL studies the role of domestic bioenergy potentials for agriculture, the wider economy and international trade for Austria. In particular, agricultural biomass pro-duction can contribute to significant shares of energy provision in Austria. A detailed scenario is developed to explore the opportunities and challenges of enhanced domestic biomass production based on short rotation forestry (SRF) for heat supply which is currently among the most competitive technologies. To that end, TRIOPOL establishes a model linkage between a sectoral supply-model for Austrian agriculture and a national small open economy general equilibrium model. Model results show that a biomass premium of 65 € per ton dry matter is required to support 250,000 ha of SRF on cropland in Austria by 2020. The thus provided bioheat covers some 33 petajoule (PJ) heat energy demand in Austria; taking into account the likely rising of energy prices by 2020, this number rises to 47 PJ. Substantial land use changes may also be compensated by increases in land use intensity and as well as changes in imports and exports. Scenario results suggest that domestic food production of non-meat commodities falls by 1.3%. The sector meat products profits from the high competitiveness of Austrian livestock production and responds by a slight increase in net exports. The results of the quantitative analysis shall support the scientific and political debate on securing food and energy supply as well as economic development goals.

Weblink:	fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2012_13/04-PolicyNote-KolandSchoenhartSchmid.pdf _blank
File:	fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2012_13/04-ResearchReport-KolandSchoenhartSchmid.pdf

Abstract: TTRIOPOL studies the role of domestic bioenergy potentials for agriculture, the wider economy and international trade for Austria. In particular, agricultural biomass pro-duction can contribute to significant shares of energy provision in Austria. A detailed scenario is developed to explore the opportunities and challenges of enhanced domestic biomass production based on short rotation forestry (SRF) for heat supply which is currently among the most competitive technologies. To that end, TRIOPOL establishes a model linkage between a sectoral supply-model for Austrian agriculture and a national small open economy general equilibrium model. Model results show that a biomass premium of 65 € per ton dry matter is required to support 250,000 ha of SRF on cropland in Austria by 2020. The thus provided bioheat covers some 33 petajoule (PJ) heat energy demand in Austria; taking into account the likely rising of energy prices by 2020, this number rises to 47 PJ. Substantial land use changes may also be compensated by increases in land use intensity and as well as changes in imports and exports. Scenario results suggest that domestic food production of non-meat commodities falls by 1.3%. The sector meat products profits from the high competitiveness of Austrian livestock production and responds by a slight increase in net exports. The results of the quantitative analysis shall support the scientific and political debate on securing food and energy supply as well as economic development goals.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_108-Calin.pdf

Abstract: In this paper I quantify the welfare gains of the 2004 EU enlargement as a result of the abolition of border controls, both for incumbents and for new members. I build a multi-sector Ricardian model, allowing for linkages across sectors, similar to the one in Caliendro and Parro (2011). As with a large number of quantitative trade models, the gains crucially depend on one key parameter, the dispersion of productivity. I extend the estimation methodology of Costinot et al. (2012) to a richer modeling setting and compute the dispersion in a way consistent with the underlying theoretical model. Within the model, I compare the welfare changes for 23 countries between 2003 and 2006. I find that new entrants gained significantly more than old members from enlargement. However, the overall changes in real income are rather small, measured in single digits for new entrants and fractions of a percent for old members. I also break down total gains by source and find that allowing for interconnectedness across sectors amplifies the changes in welfare.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_112-HericourtPoncet.pdf

Abstract: This paper studies how firm-level export performance is affected by Real Exchange Rate (RER) volatility and investigates whether this effect depends on existing financial constraints. Our empirical analysis relies on export data for more than 100,000 Chinese exporters over the period 2000-2006. We confirm a trade-deterring effect of RER volatility. We find that the value exported by firms, as well as their probability of entering new export markets, decrease for destinations with higher exchange rate volatility and that this effect is magnified for financially vulnerable firms. As expected, financial development does seem to dampen this negative impact, especially on the intensive margin of export. These results provide microfounded evidence that financial constraints may play a key role in determining the macro impact of RER volatility on real outcomes.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_107-Pueschel.pdf

Abstract: In this paper, I estimate the impact of service offshoring on the real wages of U.S. workers by controlling for workers’ skill levels and the offshoring susceptibility of different tasks. Matching individual-level wage data with input-output tables over the period from 2006 to 2009, I am further able to account for unobservable individual-level heterogeneity. The results from a Mincerian wage regression indicate that within skill groups, the impact of service offshoring on real wages depends on the task content of the respective occupation. The real wages of medium- and high-skilled workers employed in the least offshorable occupations were positively affected by service offshoring. However, within the groups of medium- and high-skilled workers, service offshoring negatively affected the real wage of the most tradable occupations.

Abstract: FIW publishes quarterly FIW Notes. They present an overview of the most important Austrian and international developments regarding international economics. There is only a German version available.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_104-Jambor.pdf

Abstract: The article analyses patterns and country-specific determinants of Visegrad Countries’ (VC) agri-food trade with the European Union. Literature focusing on the country-specific determinants of vertical and horizontal intra-industry trade is rather limited and those analysing agricultural (or agri-food) trade are extremely rare. Therefore, the paper seeks to contribute to the literature by covering latest theory and data available on the topic to provide up to date results and suggestions. Moreover, it seeks to identify the determinants of horizontal and vertical intra-industry trade of the Visegrad Countries after EU accession. Results suggest that agri-food trade of the Visegrad Countries is mainly inter-industry in nature but intra-industry trade is dominated by vertical elements. Results verify that determinants of horizontal and vertical IIT differ and suggest that economic size is positively, while distance is negatively related to both sides of IIT. However, the relationship between vertical IIT and differences in factor endowments as well as FDI is ambiguous.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_114-Stoellinger.pdf

Abstract: Technology is a key element for long-term growth and economic development. Given the stark concentration of innovation activities in a few countries most countries have to rely on the international diffusion of newly developed technologies. Some countries may fail to successfully perform the task of technology adaption leading to a tripartite segmentation of countries into an innovation club, an imitation club whose members are capable of absorbing technologies developed by the former and a stagnation group that lack the capability to absorb foreign technologies. We test the role of the technology gap for growth as suggested by the technology club hypothesis in a threshold regression framework using human capital as the threshold variable. Using this approach, which is related to Benhabib-Spiegel type growth regressions, we are able to identify two distinct thresholds giving rise to three country groupings. As suggested by the theory of technology clubs we find the strongest effects from the catch-up term on economic growth for the intermediate group (imitation club).

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_113-HorvathVasko.pdf

Abstract: We develop a comprehensive index of the transparency of central banks regarding their policy framework to promote financial stability for 110 countries from 2000 to 2011 and examine the determinants and effects of this transparency. We find that the degree of transparency increased in the 2000s, though it still varied greatly across the countries in our study. Our regression results suggest that more developed countries exhibit greater transparency, that episodes of high financial stress have a negative effect on transparency and that the legal origin matters, too. Importantly, we find that transparency regarding the level of financial stability is strongly affected by monetary policy transparency. The central banks that have a transparent monetary policy are more likely to show increased transparency in their framework for financial stability. Our results also suggest a non-linear effect of central bank financial stability transparency on financial stress. Unless the financial sector experiences severe distress, greater transparency is beneficial for financial stability.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_109-Behncke.pdf

Abstract: The present paper contributes to the existing literature analyzing the relationship between intra EU trade in services and European Integration by taking into consideration a potential endogeneity bias of the EU dummy and a correct specification of multilateral resistance terms in a panel data set covering the years 2000-2010. Our results offer evidence for a high positive impact of European integration on aggregate services trade between member states while we find a negative effect of monetary integration. However, there exist notable differences at the sector level. According to our results, European integration has positive effects especially for business services, travel and EDV services. Analyzing the evolvement of the sectoral EU-effects over time shows that exports of EDV and OBS have steadily increased due to European integration.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_105-Gehringerpdf.pdf

Abstract: In a dynamic panel framework, I investigate the qualitative aspects of factors determining current account imbalances in (country groupings within) the European Union. I consider the standard determinants of current account positions discussed in the past literature, but additionally, I include a series of explanatory variables that refer to the sectoral composition of the European economies and that could have significantly contributed to the current account developments in the past decades. Independently of the econometric method used, the main finding suggests that the economic predominance of the construction sector might have played an important role in aggravating current account positions in the European economies. In parallel, some negative influence could be found for some other service sectors, but this shouldn’t be of much concern due to their role played in the growth process.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_106-Jovanovic.pdf

Abstract: This paper evaluates the bias which may occur when trade elasticities are estimated using data on aggregate trade, instead of using data on bilateral trade. The exercise is done on the case of Macedonia. Elasticities obtained from aggregate-trade data, using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag approach, are compared with the elasticities obtained from bilateral-trade data, using dynamic heterogenous panels techniques. Results point out that the aggregation bias is sizeable and that relying on aggregate data can lead to wrong conclusions about the trade elasticities.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_111-Orefice.pdf

Abstract: This paper investigates empirically the role of Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) as determinants of migration inflows for 29 OECD countries in the period 1998-2008. By increasing information about signatory countries, PTAs are expected to drive migration flows towards member countries. Building on the empirical literature on the determinants of migration, I estimate a modified gravity model on migration flows providing evidence of a strong positive effect of PTAs on bilateral migration flows. I also consider the content of PTAs as a further determinant of migration, finding that visa-and-asylum and labour market related provisions, when included in PTAs, stimulate bilateral migration flows. Finally, by comparing the average effects of PTAs on migration flows and on trade, I show that PTAs stimulate bilateral migration flows more than trade in final goods. PTAs might be used by government to increase inflows of immigrant workers in the case of labour shortages or population ageing.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Policy_Briefs/19.FIW_PolicyBrief_Richter.pdf

Abstract: As a consequence of the 2008-2009 international financial crisis the European Union is undergoing per-haps its most difficult period since the beginnings of the European integration. The response to this challenge includes decisions and planned steps to strengthen fiscal discipline in the member states, safeguard measures against a falling-apart of the eurozone and the introduction of a Union-wide super-vision of the European banking sector. A new fiscal capacity (budget) for the eurozone is under consid-eration. It seems that the extraordinary situation has triggered a wave of extraordinary reforms throughout the EU. In one area, the Community Budget, however, time seems to have stopped temporarily. The European Council of 22-23 November 2012 was unable to arrive at a compromise on the terms of the Multi-annual Financial Framework (MFF or the EU budget) and postponed the decision to 7-8 February. The contradiction between the decades-old unsolved budgetary problems and the rapidly changing environment cannot be greater as it is now.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_103-FreyOlekseyuk.pdf

Abstract: The establishment of the currently negotiated Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between EU and Ukraine is the next significant step towards Ukraine’s deeper integration into the world economy, widely expected to result in additional welfare gains. As developing countries face some costs associated with trade liberalization, this paper contributes to the literature by analyzing the effects of the EU-Ukraine FTA taking into account the loss of tariff revenues as well as the changed economic conditions after Ukraine’s accession to the WTO in 2008. In particular, we calculate the effects of a unilateral tariff elimination in a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model for Ukraine simulating three scenarios reflecting different means to compensate for the loss in tariff revenues. It turns out to be important to take these costs into consideration while modeling trade liberalization, as the results vary significantly across the scenarios. In general, we find that tariff elimination has only a small impact on the country’s welfare because of the already strongly reduced tariff rates after Ukraine’s WTO accession. The effects can even be negative if the country tries to refinance the trade liberalization costs by means of tax policy. According to our simulations the most welfare enhancing option would be the provision of financial support by the EU, which is in fact suggested in the latest European Parliament resolution.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2012_13/03-ResearchReport-FrancoisPindyuk.pdf

Abstract: This study examines the economic impact on Austria of three possible new EU free trade agreements: (1) an EU-US agreement; (2) an EU-Canada agreement; and (3) an EUArmenia/Georgia/Moldova agreement. This is done with a computational model of the global economy. The trade agreements are modeled as a mix of preferential tariff reductions and reductions in non-tariff measures that affect both goods and services. The primary impact follows from NTM reduction rather than tariff reductions. Of the three agreements, a potential agreement with the US is by far the most important. This follows from the size of the US economy. The US accounts for roughly one-quarter of extra-EU Austrian exports. Overall, the combined impact of the FTAs studied is positive. Most of the impact follows from investment response. Productivity gains from NTM reduction mean a combination of increased national income, higher wages, and employment, and increased capital stocks for the Austrian economy.

Weblink:	fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2012_13/03-PolicyNote-FrancoisPindyuk.pdf _blank
File:	fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2012_13/03-ResearchReport-FrancoisPindyuk.pdf

Abstract: This study examines the economic impact on Austria of three possible new EU free trade agreements: (1) an EU-US agreement; (2) an EU-Canada agreement; and (3) an EUArmenia/Georgia/Moldova agreement. This is done with a computational model of the global economy. The trade agreements are modeled as a mix of preferential tariff reductions and reductions in non-tariff measures that affect both goods and services. The primary impact follows from NTM reduction rather than tariff reductions. Of the three agreements, a potential agreement with the US is by far the most important. This follows from the size of the US economy. The US accounts for roughly one-quarter of extra-EU Austrian exports. Overall, the combined impact of the FTAs studied is positive. Most of the impact follows from investment response. Productivity gains from NTM reduction mean a combination of increased national income, higher wages, and employment, and increased capital stocks for the Austrian economy.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Policy_Briefs/18.PolicyBrief_Breuss.pdf

Abstract: Das Kernelement der Europäischen Integration, der „Binnenmarkt“, feiert heuer das 20-jährige Bestehen. Österreich hat seit dem Beitritt zur EU im Jahr 1995 an allen vertiefenden Schritten der EU-Integration teilgenommen. Nicht nur politisch ist Österreich durch die EU-Mitgliedschaft moderner, europäischer geworden, es hat auch ökonomisch auf allen Stufen der Integration profitiert: Ostöffnung (zusätzliches BIP-Wachstum +0,2 Prozentpunkte pro Jahr), EU-Mitgliedschaft (Teilnahme am EU-Binnenmarkt: +0,6 Prozentpunkte), WWU-Teilnahme (+0,4 Prozentpunkte) und EU-Erweiterung (+0,4 Prozentpunkte). Die aus Modellsimulationen abgeleiteten Integrationseffekte durch die Teilnahme an allen Integrationsstufen verstärkten das Wachstum des österreichischen BIP insgesamt um ½ bis 1 Prozentpunkt pro Jahr. Die Plausibilität dieser Modellergebnisse wird durch den Vergleich der Wirtschaftsentwicklung Österreichs mit anderen EU-Ländern und Drittländern unterstrichen. So entsprach der Wachstumsvorsprung Österreichs vor Deutschland und der Schweiz den genannten Integrationseffekten. Dieser „Wachstumsbonus“ ist ohne die Integrationswirkungen der Teilnahme Österreichs an allen EU-Projekten schwer bis gar nicht erklärbar.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2012_13/03-PolicyNote-FrancoisPindyuk.pdf

Abstract: This study examines the economic impact on Austria of three possible new EU free trade agreements: (1) an EU-US agreement; (2) an EU-Canada agreement; and (3) an EUArmenia/Georgia/Moldova agreement. This is done with a computational model of the global economy. The trade agreements are modeled as a mix of preferential tariff reductions and reductions in non-tariff measures that affect both goods and services. The primary impact follows from NTM reduction rather than tariff reductions. Of the three agreements, a potential agreement with the US is by far the most important. This follows from the size of the US economy. The US accounts for roughly one-quarter of extra-EU Austrian exports. Overall, the combined impact of the FTAs studied is positive. Most of the impact follows from investment response. Productivity gains from NTM reduction mean a combination of increased national income, higher wages, and employment, and increased capital stocks for the Austrian economy.

Abstract: FIW publishes quarterly FIW Notes. They present an overview of the most important Austrian and international developments regarding international economics. There is only a German version available.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Policy_Briefs/17.FIW_Policy_Brief_Smeral.pdf

Abstract: Da der Tourismus im Allgemeinen zeitverzögert reagiert, zeigt sich die Verschlechterung der wirtschaftlichen Situation in Europa noch nicht deutlich in den internationalen Tourismusdaten des Jahres 2012. Die derzeitige Lage im österreichischen Tourismus lässt sich so beschreiben, dass sich die Tourismusnachfrage (gemessen in realen Umsätzen) im Vergleich zu allen anderen wirtschaftlichen Aktivitäten wie Konsum, Ausrüstungsinvestitionen und Warenexporten im Zuge des Konjunkturaufschwunges und der Belebung der internationalen Tourismusnachfrage nach der Überwindung der Rezession 2009 nicht deutlich beleben konnte. Damit geriet die Tourismuswirtschaft gegenüber der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung immer mehr in Rückstand. Erst im Laufe des Jahres 2012 dürfte sich die touristische Situation etwas verbessern. Die Konsequenzen des längeren Nachhinken eines Sektors im Vergleich zur Gesamtwirtschaft sind erheblich, da der Wachstumsrückstand einen Preis-, Kosten- und Gewinndruck sowie in der Folge strukturelle Wettbewerbsnachteile für den betroffenen Wirtschaftszweig erzeugt. Auch im internationalen Vergleich zeigte sich, dass Österreich 2011 – gemessen an den nominellen Tourismusexporten der EU 15 – seinen Marktanteil nicht halten konnte. Gegenwärtig liegt der österreichische Markanteil mit 5,9% nur mehr knapp über dem historischen Tiefpunkt des Jahres 2000 (5,4%). 2012 dürften die Marktanteile im besten Fall gehalten werden können.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_102-GiovannettiSanfilippo.pdf

Abstract: This paper analyzes the impact of Chinese competition on developed countries export prices, with a focus on Italy. After a theoretical discussion of the channels affecting export prices in presence of competitors from low income countries, we estimate the pricing behavior of two major manufacturing sectors, consumer goods and machinery, distinguishing destination markets according to their income level. Results show that export competition from China has affected Italian price strategies over the period 2000-08, in an idiosyncratic way according to the income level of importers, sector and technology level of products exported. Contrary to what observed for other high-income countries, we find that Italy has followed a very specific strategy to face Chinese competition. Instead of changing “between sector”, moving up to the technology ladder, Italy has kept its specialization in traditional sectors and has upgraded the quality of its low-tech and laborintensive products, when in direct competition with Chinese ones. For higher technology products, on the other hand, it has adjusted prices downward to reduce Chinese competitive pressure, especially in segments where it does not hold a comparative advantage, while it has fostered differentiation only for some niche products within the sectors with higher specialization.