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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_168_Everett.pdf

Abstract: This paper exploits a novel bank-level monthly dataset to assess the effects of global liquidity on the global flows of euro area banks. The period associated with the European sovereign debt crisis has witnessed increased growth in euro area bank claims on extra-euro area residents, against a background of contracting euro area credit supply. Controlling for bank risk, global credit demand, and price effects such as interest rate differentials and exchange rates, empirical evidence supports a range of determinants of global liquidity - including global risk, global bank equity and unconventional monetary policy in the US, UK, Japan and euro area - as drivers of the global flows of euro area banks. Moreover, regression analysis indicates heterogeneity in the influence of global liquidity on global flows across euro area bank type, defined by their balance sheet composition and country of residence (stressed versus non-stressed euro area countries). The results highlight the importance of exogenous factors as drivers of global bank flows and the potential for international leakages of unconventional monetary policy.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_167_Pietrzak.pdf

Abstract: This paper shows what are the consequences of omitting international dimension issues like international trade and financial channels when modeling the effects of unconventional monetary policy tools. To evaluate the size of discrepancies between consequences of a large-scale asset purchase program in a small open economy and a closed one, we extend one of the existing models analyzing a large-scale asset purchases by adding small open economy features. Finally we compare it with the original version. We find that previous studies might overestimate the extent to what large-scale asset purchases affect real activity. Allowing agents to trade internationally with goods as well as saving via foreign, currency denominated deposits leads to a leakages that result in substantial differences between large-scale asset purchases in a small open economy and an autarky. Moreover, our results show that negative supply side shocks have less severe consequences in a small open economy comparing to an autarky, because they are offset by the real exchange rate depreciation which boosts competitiveness.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Kurzbericht/21_FIW_Kurzbericht_Maerz_2016.pdf

Abstract: FIW publishes biannually FIW Notes. They present an overview of the most important Austrian and international developments regarding international economics. There is only a German version available.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Policy_Briefs/30_FIW_PolicyBrief_Stoellinger_korr.pdf

Abstract: Die mangelnde Investitionsbereitschaft auf Seiten der Unternehmen wird gerne als Hauptursache für die mäßige Konjunkturlage in Europa ausgemacht. Gleichzeitig belasten die moderaten und unsicheren Wachstumsaussichten die unternehmerische Investitionstätigkeit. Die stark expansiv ausgerichtete Geldpolitik im Euro-Raum hat bisher wenig an diesen Entwicklungen ändern können. Erklärungsversu-che für das in Österreich speziell in den letzten Jahren enttäuschende Investitionswachstum gibt es viele. Nach einer detaillierten Darstellung der Entwicklung der Bruttoanlageinvestitionen werden in diesem Beitrag vier der häufigsten Erklärungen näher erörtert: (i) die fehlende Nachfrage, (ii) strukturelle Veränderungen in der österreichischen Wirtschaft, (iii) eine Verschlechterung des Wirtschaftsstandorts Österreich sowie (iv) das Vorliegen einer Kreditklemme. Bereits ein etwas genauerer Blick auf die österreichischen Investitionsdaten zeigt, dass das oftmals attestierte Investitionsproblem in Österreich nicht allzu gravierend sein dürfte – zumindest nicht dahingehend, dass daraus ein Verlust der Wettbewerbsfähigkeit der österreichischen Unternehmen resultieren wird. Handlungsbedarf auf Seiten der öffentlichen Hand besteht allerdings durchaus, denn das Potential des Staates, die Investitionstä-tigkeit in Zukunftsbereichen direkt und indirekt zu unterstützen, wird bei Weitem nicht ausgeschöpft.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_166_Unger.pdf

Abstract: The euro area crisis is often linked to the emergence of current account imbalances. As most of the deficit countries experienced pronounced credit booms at the same time that these imbalances were building up, this paper investigates the link between domestic credit developments and the current account balance. Using a panel error correction specification, the estimation results show that flows of bank loans to the non-financial private sector are a significant determinant of the current account and that they – together with changes in competitiveness – constituted the most important factor driving the build-up of current account imbalances in the deficit countries. Accordingly, impeding an increase in private sector indebtedness seems to be a promising way to dampen the formation of unsustainable current account imbalances.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_165_Merlevede_Theodorakopoulos.pdf

Abstract: In this paper we confirm the existence of improvements of firm productivity when domestic upstream and downstream firms become more internationalized and therefore offshore (import intermediate inputs) and inshore (export final output for intermediate input usage) intensively. China’s accession to the WTO, which in the case of Belgium reduced trade barriers to China, help us confirm that these inter-industry productivity improvements can also be generated form a quasi-trade liberalization event. Upstream linkages are the dominant source of these productivity benefits and are reaped mainly from medium-low tech, labor intensive and upstream industries. Finally, we draw upon the importance of biases in our results from misspecifications common in the literature. From ignoring the dynamic nature of productivity, results appear overestimated or with sign reversals. From estimating a value-added instead of a gross-output production function, results become spurious.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_163_Vannier.pdf

Abstract: This article aims at assessing the main characteristics of the business cycle of 80 developed and developing countries. By comparing the possibility for these economies to enter or to exit a recession and the associated consequences, it aims at complementing existing literature with regard to scale and/or frequency of the study. Following the usual definition of a recession, an algorithmic classification tends to show that, surprisingly, developed and developing countries face similar probabilities to enter or to exit a recession, respectively around 5% and 18%. This aspect contradicts existing literature, which often advocates a greater volatility of developing countries’ business cycle with more frequent recessions. However emerging markets and economies face output per capita losses around twice as important as advanced ones when they undergo a recession. These observations are then tested using a non-linear parametric Markov-Switching Model. If the statistical validity of this method is bound by data availability, it echoes in a really good manner the pattern derived using a non-parametric approach. Estimating the model on the cyclical component of the series, derived using an HP filter, fits the best previous remarks. It also replicates other major characteristics. Indeed while developed countries form a rather homogeneous group, developing countries demonstrate greater heterogeneity. Latin American countries appear as the most vulnerable ones whereas Asian countries perform better than all other groups.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_162_Irlacher_Unger.pdf

Abstract: This paper develops a new international trade model with capital market imperfections and endogenous borrowing costs in general equilibrium. A key element of our model is that firm heterogeneity arises from the interaction of credit constraints at the firm-level with financial frictions at the country-level. Producers differ in pledgeability of sales which results in firm heterogeneity, if financial institutions are imperfect. We show that endogenous adjustments of capital costs represent a new channel that reduces common gains from globalization. Trade liberalization increases the borrowing rate, leads to a reallocation of market shares towards unconstrained producers and a larger fraction of credit-rationed firms. This increases the within-industry variance of, sales and reduces welfare gains as consumers dislike price heterogeneity. Our theory is consistent with new empirical patterns from World Bank firm-level data. We highlight that credit frictions are positively related to the degree of product market competition and to the variance of sales across firms.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_164_Thomas.pdf

Abstract: Economic Growth and External Stabilisation (defined in terms of Current Account Balance as a percentage of GDP) is a top priority for policy-makers, while laying out the macroeconomic framework for Indian economy. Government of India had targeted for an average GDP growth rate of 9 percent and a Current Account Deficit (CAD) below 2.5 percent of GDP during the five-year period from 2012-2017. However, the actual CAD of Indian economy widened to 4.2% of GDP in 2011-12, and further reached a historic high CAD of 4.7 percent of GDP in 2012-13. Given such a scenario, this paper aims to estimate the impact of services trade on India’s Economic Growth and Current Account Balance, during the post-reform period from 1990-91 to 2011-12. Facilitated by economic globalisation, domestic liberalization, and technological advances which resulted in increasing international fragmentation of the production process, India’s services trade began growing rapidly post 1991. With the help of Thirlwall’s Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Model and ARDL approach to cointegration, this study estimates and establishes the crucial role of services trade in achieving the policy objectives of economic growth and external stabilisation simultaneously for Indian economy. This study also examines the impact of services exports on India’s economic growth, by comparing the latest officially published input-output table of India for 2007-08, with that of 1993-94. Among the major services in India’s export basket, construction, transport and business services are found to exhibit strongest backward linkages, and hence can act as engines of export-led growth. Role of services imports in India’s export-led growth and the import content going into production of India’s services exports is analysed using the TIVA database for 1995 and 2008, which have implications for India’s external stabilisation. Foreign value added content in India’s services exports is found to be highest in case of business services, transport services and telecommunications.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Policy_Briefs/29_FIW_PolicyBrief_Aiginger.pdf

Abstract: Wettbewerbsfähigkeit wird noch immer oft rein kostenmäßig definiert (niedrige Löhne, Energiepriese). Für Industrieländer und besonders Topeinkommensländer wie Österreich spielen aber Faktoren wie Innovation, Ausbildung und staatliche und nicht staatliche Institutionen (Sozialpartnerschaft, Vertrauen, schnelle Entscheidungen) eine wichtige Rolle. Und der Wettbewerbserfolg sollte nicht nur an den erzielten Einkommen, sondern auch an sozialen und ökologischen Kriterien gemessen werden. Österreich ist auch nach dieser breiteren Definition des Wettbewerbserfolges - gemessen an der Erreichung von Beyond GDP Zielen - mittelfristig ein Erfolgsmodell.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_160_Mirdala.pdf

Abstract: Fixed versus flexible exchange rate dilemma has become a subject of rigorous academic discussions for decades. Advantages of exchange rates flexibility contrasted benefits of exchange rate stability though a phenomenon known as the fear of floating favoured exchange rate variability and its positive effects on economies. Relative diversity in the exchange rate regimes in EU11 countries motivated many authors to investigate the sources of their real exchange rate volatility provided that even fixed exchange rates may fluctuate via adjustments in prices and wages. However, fixed exchange rate perspective associated with Eurozone membership may induce changed patterns in the real exchange rate determination in countries that benefit from nominal exchange rate flexibility prior to euro adoption. In the paper we analyse sources of real exchange rates fluctuations in EU11 countries. SVAR methodology and impulse-response functions will be employed to examine the responsiveness of real exchange rates to the underlying structural shocks by employing SVAR methodology. Our results indicate an increased responsiveness of real exchange rates in EMU non-member countries to demand and supply shocks, particularly due to the effects of the crisis period. At the same time, real exchange rates in EMU member countries became more responsive to nominal shocks.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_161_Jung.pdf

Abstract: In this paper, we develop a simple general-equilibrium trade model in which heterogeneous workers make an investment decision in acquiring advanced managerial skills and choose their optimal effort level based on their own individual organizational beliefs and CEO’s managerial vision. In doing so, we show how trade liberalization and/or changes in managerial vision of CEO may lead to non-monotonic income changes within firms due to the interaction between workers’ beliefs and CEO’s managerial vision. Whether a stronger (or weaker) CEO’s managerial vision benefits the firm or not depends on its extent relative to workers’ overall beliefs, and may involve some winners and losers within firms.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_158_Sobiech.pdf

Abstract: In this paper, I measure the importance of remittances and financial development for developing countries. I estimate an index of overall financial conditions and use it to determine the relevance of the financial sector as a transmission channel for remittances to affect economic growth. The index brings together information from existing measures, reflecting size, depth and efficiency of the financial sector. It is created by means of an unobserved components model. I show that the more financial development in a country, the smaller becomes the impact of remittances on economic growth and it can even turn negative. For countries with weaker financial markets there is a positive effect, but significant only at the earliest stages of financial development. The effect becomes negative in the third quartile of financial development. These results hold irrespective of the measure of financial development included, but are most profound in case of the created index. This means that estimates based on proxies might be slightly biased. I also show that countries with both low levels of remittances and financial development should first focus on developing the latter, while migrants' transfers become important for growth if the country has a moderate level of financial development.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Policy_Briefs/28_FIW_PolicyBrief_Oberhofer_Winner.pdf

Abstract: Im vorliegenden Beitrag werden die Handelseffekte der EU-Integration Österreichs quantifiziert. Als Datenbasis werden Exporte aus und Importe nach Österreich für 190 Handelspartner und 68 Industriebranchen zwischen 1988 und 2014 verwendet. Empirisch werden im Rahmen eines zweistufigen Gravitationsmodells die Auswirkungen von drei Integrationsschritten auf den extensiven und intensiven Rand des österreichischen Außenhandels untersucht: Der EU-Beitritt 1995, welcher die Teilnahme am Binnenmarkt ermöglicht, die Einführung einer gemeinsamen Währung (ab 1999) und die Erweiterung der EU um ost- und mitteleuropäische Länder (ab 2004). Die empirischen Ergebnisse legen nahe, dass die EU-Mitgliedschaft, insbesondere die Teilnahme am Binnenmarkt und die Osterweiterung, eine beträchtliche Intensivierung des österreichischen Außenhandels zur Folge hatten. Für die Euroeinführung war dies weniger zu beobachten.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_159_Hecht.pdf

Abstract: This paper analyses the location choice of German investors in the Czech Republic based on a unique dataset covering all Czech companies with a German equity holder in 2010. The identification of the regional determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) location is an important regional policy issue as FDI is supposed to improve the labour market conditions of the host region. Using a nested logit approach the impact of agglomeration economies, labour market conditions and distance on the location choice decision is investigated. The main result of the paper is that apart from a low distance to the location of the parent company the attractiveness of a Czech district for German investors is mainly driven by agglomeration economies. Besides localisation economies the agglomeration of German companies in a region plays a decisive role. The importance of labour market characteristics differs between investment sectors, sizes and periods.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Kurzbericht/20. Kurzbericht_Sept_2015.pdf

Abstract: FIW publishes quarterly FIW Notes. They present an overview of the most important Austrian and international developments regarding international economics. There is only a German version available.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_157_Danne.pdf

Abstract: This paper constructs agreement specific instruments in order to estimate the effect of membership in a regional cooperation agreement (RCA) on institutional change. For a sample of 144 emerging and developing economies, the results show that membership in a RCA explains a significant part of the cross country variation in institutional reforms. EU and NATO-related agreements are an important reason why emerging markets in Eastern Europe and Central Asia have been better reformers despite their socialistic heritage. RCAs are a main factor why African economies are still doing very poorly in terms of institutional reforms. I show that the construction of the RCA and the willingness delegate sovereignty is behind the effect on institutions and is an important.

Weblink:	https://fiw.ac.at/fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2014/04_SchimanReinstaller_ExecutiveSummary_en.pdf _blank
File:	fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2014/04_SchimanReinstaller_PolicyNote.pdf

Abstract: Die Terms-of-Trade (ToT) bezeichnen das Tauschverhältnis von Warenimporten zu Warnexporten, also die Relation von Export- zu Importpreisen. Das Einwirken gegenläufiger Kräfte führte in Österreich dazu, dass sich die ToT im langfristigen Vergleich relativ stabil entwickelten. Die vorliegende Studie analysiert daher nicht nur den Zeit- und Branchenverlauf der ToT, sondern auch die Bestimmungsfaktoren und deren Rolle in der Entwicklung der heimischen ToT: Es werden monetäre (Rohölpreis, Wechselkurs) und nicht-monetäre Determinanten (Gütersortiment, Gütervielfalt/Qualität, Kapitalakkumulation) diskutiert.

Weblink:	fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2014/04_SchimanReinstaller_PolicyNote.pdf
File:	fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2014/04_SchimanReinstaller_ResearchReport.pdf

Abstract: Die Terms-of-Trade (ToT) bezeichnen das Tauschverhältnis von Warenimporten zu Warnexporten, also die Relation von Export- zu Importpreisen. Das Einwirken gegenläufiger Kräfte führte in Österreich dazu, dass sich die ToT im langfristigen Vergleich relativ stabil entwickelten. Die vorliegende Studie analysiert daher nicht nur den Zeit- und Branchenverlauf der ToT, sondern auch die Bestimmungsfaktoren und deren Rolle in der Entwicklung der heimischen ToT: Es werden monetäre (Rohölpreis, Wechselkurs) und nicht-monetäre Determinanten (Gütersortiment, Gütervielfalt/Qualität, Kapitalakkumulation) diskutiert.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studies_on_Foreign_Trade/Felbermayr_etal_Oesterreich_in_der_EU.pdf

Abstract: Seit gut zwanzig Jahren ist Österreich Vollmitglied der Europäischen Union. In der Zeit hat sich das Land sehr gut entwickelt. Die vorliegende Studie befasst sich mit der Frage, ob und in welchem Ausmaß der EU-Beitritt Österreichs für diese Erfolgsgeschichte kausal verantwortlich gemacht werden kann.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Policy_Briefs/27_FIW_PolicyBrief_Reinstaller.pdf

Abstract: Smart Specialisation-Strategien (3S) stellen einen neuen Ansatz im Kontext der Europäischen Industrie- und Regionalpolitik dar. Dies sind wirtschaftspolitische Maßnahmen, die darauf abzielen, neue Spezialisierungen auf der Grundlage bestehender räumlich und technologisch konzentrierter Kompetenzen und Stärken voranzutreiben. Da es sich dabei aber primär um die Unterstützung von Diversifizierungsprozessen handelt, verwendet dieser Beitrag den Begriff „Smart Diversification“. Es wird argumentiert, dass diese Strategien auf der Ausnutzung von Verbundeffekten (z.B. Wissensspillovers) aufbauen. Der Beitrag zeigt, dass diese Effekte tatsächlich eine wichtige Rolle bei der Entwicklung neuer Spezialisierungen im österreichischen Außenhandel spielen, da sie die Grundlage für Kostenvorteile bei der Erzeugung spezifischer Güter und die Herausbildung von Alleinstellungsmerkmalen bilden. Andererseits führen sie auch zu Pfadabhängigkeiten in der Entwicklung des Exportportfolios, die langfristig zu einem strukturellen „Lock-in“ führen könnten. Ob lokale Kompetenzen und darauf aufbauende Spezialisierungen eine Chance oder eine Einschränkung für die weitere Entwicklung sind, hängt auch von forschungs-, technologie- und innovationspolitischen Maßnahmen ab, die darauf abzielen, bestehende Stärken weiterzuentwickeln und mit neuen Wissens- oder Technologiebereichen zu verknüpfen. Es geht also im Sinne Schumpeters um die Schöpfung und Umsetzung „neuer Kombinationen“.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_156_Schuetz_Palan.pdf

Abstract: Production and trade processes in the textile industry have been undergoing tremendous changes in structure due to both changes in technology (i.e. increased mechanization and automation processes) and in the institutional environment (i.e. the assignment of the WTO treaty in 1994). This paper studies the restructuring process in the textile industry from the perspective of two major textile producing countries in the EU15, i.e. Italy and Portugal between the two years 1995 and 2009. As a starting point, a detailed descriptive analysis of the global distribution of the textile industry and changes therein is provided. By means of two international textile trade networks (ITTNs), showing (1) trade in value added and (2) trade in labour, we next discuss spatial trade patterns and changes therein. Focusing on the ITTNs, we then figure out how these countries’ textile industries were affected in terms of specialisation patterns, movements along the global value chain and vertical specialisation. Combining the merits of a multiregional I/O-framework with network analysis both qualitative and quantitative aspects of the experienced restructuring process are figured out. This paper contributes to a better understanding of changes in national economic structures resulting from changes in the institutional and technological change without masking the international context.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2014/03_Kulmer_Policy_Note_german.pdf

Abstract: This study focuses on the implications of rising global value chains (GVCs) on international trade and analysis the impacts on small open economies. Small open economies rely heavily on international trade and are highly integrated in global production networks but have so far been hardly considered in the literature. On the example of Austria, an industrialized small open economy in central Europe, we addressed the role of small open economies in a globalized economy. Based on the WIOD database we apply network analysis and use GVC as well as competiveness indicators to measure the associated risks as well as benefits. Findings imply for Austria a sharp turn in the focus of trade policy away from the traditional gross trade perspective. Austria’s competitiveness has been strengthened considerably via the participation in GVCs since resource and endowment constraints have been overcoming easier and foreign inputs are used in the production processes efficiently enabling vast economies of scale. Results also reveal that the promotion of service oriented activities which are a main source of the domestic value added content in manufacturing exports is of key importance for Austria’s competitiveness on the global market. In particular we found a mutual integration of EU enlargement countries of 2004 and Austria: Austria’s intermediate exports are mainly characterized by high knowledge- and service-intensive manufacturing goods, while the EU enlargement countries of 2004 specialize in low-skilled employment and less knowledge intensive services.

Weblink:	fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2014/03_Kulmer%20et%20al_Policy%20Note_german.pdf
File:	fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2014/03_Kulmer_FIW_Research_Report.pdf

Abstract: This study focuses on the implications of rising global value chains (GVCs) on international trade and analysis the impacts on small open economies. Small open economies rely heavily on international trade and are highly integrated in global production networks but have so far been hardly considered in the literature. On the example of Austria, an industrialized small open economy in central Europe, we addressed the role of small open economies in a globalized economy. Based on the WIOD database we apply network analysis and use GVC as well as competiveness indicators to measure the associated risks as well as benefits. Findings imply for Austria a sharp turn in the focus of trade policy away from the traditional gross trade perspective. Austria’s competitiveness has been strengthened considerably via the participation in GVCs since resource and endowment constraints have been overcoming easier and foreign inputs are used in the production processes efficiently enabling vast economies of scale. Results also reveal that the promotion of service oriented activities which are a main source of the domestic value added content in manufacturing exports is of key importance for Austria’s competitiveness on the global market. In particular we found a mutual integration of EU enlargement countries of 2004 and Austria: Austria’s intermediate exports are mainly characterized by high knowledge- and service-intensive manufacturing goods, while the EU enlargement countries of 2004 specialize in low-skilled employment and less knowledge intensive services.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2014/03_Kulmer_Executive_Summary_german.pdf

Abstract: This study focuses on the implications of rising global value chains (GVCs) on international trade and analysis the impacts on small open economies. Small open economies rely heavily on international trade and are highly integrated in global production networks but have so far been hardly considered in the literature. On the example of Austria, an industrialized small open economy in central Europe, we addressed the role of small open economies in a globalized economy. Based on the WIOD database we apply network analysis and use GVC as well as competiveness indicators to measure the associated risks as well as benefits. Findings imply for Austria a sharp turn in the focus of trade policy away from the traditional gross trade perspective. Austria’s competitiveness has been strengthened considerably via the participation in GVCs since resource and endowment constraints have been overcoming easier and foreign inputs are used in the production processes efficiently enabling vast economies of scale. Results also reveal that the promotion of service oriented activities which are a main source of the domestic value added content in manufacturing exports is of key importance for Austria’s competitiveness on the global market. In particular we found a mutual integration of EU enlargement countries of 2004 and Austria: Austria’s intermediate exports are mainly characterized by high knowledge- and service-intensive manufacturing goods, while the EU enlargement countries of 2004 specialize in low-skilled employment and less knowledge intensive services.