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Abstract: This study investigates Austria’s positions in international production sharing and global value chains exploiting the recently available Global Input-Output Database (WIOD). Researchers and policy-makers become increasingly aware of the fact that production processes are more and more organised internationally, which implies that indicators based e.g. on gross export values become less meaningful as part of this value is made of imported intermediates. As such, statistics and indicators based on a value added rather than gross trade basis and emphasis on the actual (domestic) value added creation due to exports are needed for policy-makers and researchers to draw a more accurate picture of the link between trade and value added creation and the implications thereof. Making use of indicators for measuring different aspects of complex production relations established in the literature such as the degree of vertical specialisation, value added trade and global value chain income, we find that Austria has intensified its participation in international production sharing since 1995 as evidenced, e.g., by the substantial increase in its vertical specialisation index. Tight supplier-customer relationships, above all in medium-high- and high-technology-intensive manufacturing industries, with Germany and increasingly with the neighbouring CEEC economies have contributed strongly to this development. However, international production sharing is also inextricably linked to ‘employment sharing’, meaning that in the presence of vertical specialisation not all jobs related to Austrian exports are also located in Austria. In fact, if based on the individual countries’ labour productivities, Austrian exports embody more foreign than domestic jobs due to significantly lower productivity levels in some of the partner countries. Nevertheless, the development of Austrian exports has been very dynamic over the past decade as manifested for example in a trade surplus since the early 2000s. A counterfactual exercise that compares the actual amount of domestic jobs embodied in Austrian exports with the hypothetical amount of jobs that would be needed to produce Austria’s imports domestically suggests that foreign trade has a positive employment impact in Austria amounting to some 90,000 jobs in 2009 – a result that is closely linked to Austria’s trade balance surplus. The strong export performance of Austria is also revealed by the rising share in total EU value added exports which exceeded 3% in 2011, though this is sometimes masked by the fact that the share in global value added exports declined slightly between 1995 and 2011 as a result of new important players in the arena of international trade, above all China. Finally, analysing the trade slump of the year 2009 we find that ‘re-shoring’ activities of Austrian firms as well as the so-called ‘composition effect’ contributed to the crisis-related decline of Austrian exports.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2013_2014/03_EdererSchiman_ExecutiveSummary_en.pdf

Abstract: Die vorliegende Analyse der österreichischen Warenverkehrsbilanz diskutiert sowohl die zeitliche Entwicklung der Handelsbilanz und ihre zugrundeliegenden Faktoren als auch die bilateralen Bilanzen mit den wichtigsten Handelspartnern und die Handelsbilanz in ausgewählten Warengruppen. Mit ökonometrischen Verfahren werden kurz- und langfristige Effekte identifiziert und die strukturelle Komponente der Handelsbilanz geschätzt. Zudem wird der Einfluss der Finanzmarkt- und Wirtschaftskrise auf die Warenverkehrsbilanz ermittelt. In einem internationalen Vergleich werden Parallelen und Unterschiede zur deutschen und zur Schweizer Handelsbilanz gezeigt.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Policy_Briefs/20.FIW_PolicyBrief_Hollenstein.pdf

Abstract: Basierend auf einer Sichtung der empirischen Literatur werden in diesem Policy Brief drei Fragen behandelt: 1. Welche (neuen) Trends prägen die Internationalisierung von Forschung und Entwicklung (F&E)? 2. Welche Faktoren entscheiden darüber, ob ein Unternehmen im Ausland F&E betreibt? 3. Wie wirkt sich die Internationalisierung von F&E auf Innovation und Produktivität (und damit auf das Wachstum) der heimischen Wirtschaft aus? Der Beitrag zeigt u.a., dass die mancherorts gehegte Befürchtung, dass F&E-Investitionen an ausländischen Standorten die Wissensbasis der inländischen Wirtschaft schwächt, unbegründet ist. Im Weiteren wird deutlich, dass der Nutzen, den die Präsenz multinationaler Unternehmen mit sich bringt umso grösser ist, je stärker diese in die heimische Wirtschaft (inkl. Hochschulsektor) eingebettet sind („embeddedness“) und je besser inländische Firmen in der Lage sind, Wissen und Technologien von Auslandtöchtern aufzunehmen und in ihre eigene Wissensbasis zu integrieren („absorptive capacity“). Um das Potential der Internationalisierung von F&E ausschöpfen zu können, müssen Bildung und Forschung gestärkt, Hightech-Clusters gefördert und bestehende Markteintrittsschranken (vor allem für Hightech-Jungunternehmen und Auslandfirmen) abgebaut werden.

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Abstract: Die vorliegende Analyse der österreichischen Warenverkehrsbilanz diskutiert sowohl die zeitliche Entwicklung der Handelsbilanz und ihre zugrundeliegenden Faktoren als auch die bilateralen Bilanzen mit den wichtigsten Handelspartnern und die Handelsbilanz in ausgewählten Warengruppen. Mit ökonometrischen Verfahren werden kurz- und langfristige Effekte identifiziert und die strukturelle Komponente der Handelsbilanz geschätzt. Zudem wird der Einfluss der Finanzmarkt- und Wirtschaftskrise auf die Warenverkehrsbilanz ermittelt. In einem internationalen Vergleich werden Parallelen und Unterschiede zur deutschen und zur Schweizer Handelsbilanz gezeigt.

Abstract: FIW publishes quarterly FIW Notes. They present an overview of the most important Austrian and international developments regarding international economics. There is only a German version available.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_128-DragouniFilisAntonakakis.pdf

Abstract: In this study, we employ the novel measure of a VAR-based spillover index, developed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) to investigate the time-varying relationship between tourism and economic growth in selected European countries. Overall, the findings suggest that (i) the tourism-economy relationship is not stable over time in terms of both its magnitude and direction, (ii) the relationship exhibits patterns in its magnitude and/or direction during major economic events, such as the Great Recession of 2007 and the Eurozone debt crisis of 2010, and (iii) the impact of these economic events on the relationship between the tourism sector and the economy is more apparent to Cyprus, Greece, Portugal and Spain, which are the European countries that have experienced the most severe economic downturn since 2009. These results are important to tourism actors and policy makers, suggesting that they should pay particular attention to this time-varying relationship and the factors that influence it when designing their tourism strategies. In addition, the findings of this study carry significant implications for researchers, as they underline a strand of the literature which deserves further attention.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_127-Navas.pdf

Abstract: Innovation, mark-ups and the degree of trade openness vary substantially across sectors. This paper builds a multi-sector endogenous growth model to study the influence of asymmetric trade liberalisation and sectoral differences in the degree of product market competition on the effect that trade has on R&D investments at a …firm level. I find that differences in the degree of competition generate large differences in …firm innovative responses to trade liberalisation. A movement from autarky to free trade promotes innovation and productivity growth in those sectors which are initially less competitive. However, when the initial tariff level is common across sectors, a homogeneous tariff reduction promotes innovation in those sectors which are initially more competitive. The paper suggests that trade liberalisation could be a source of industry productivity divergence: firms that are located in industries with greater exposure to foreign trade, invest a greater amount in R&D contributing to industry productivity growth. Finally the paper outlines the importance of reallocation effects within industry and across industries that are the result of these asymmetries. An asymmetric trade liberalisation has a small but negative impact on aggregate productivity growth.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_126-Colacicco.pdf

Abstract: In a two-country general oligopolistic equilibrium model, I study how cross-sector strategic trade policy affects wages, countrywide profits, and welfare. Firms face resource constraints and wages are simultaneously determined. Relative to free trade, cross-sector protectionism generates a reduction in the foreign wage without affecting the domestic wage. Domestic countrywide profits benefit from small import tariffs, whereas the foreign counterpart is hit, but when sectors share the same technology. Domestic welfare is unambiguously penalized. Hence, the general-equilibrium cross-sector perspective goes against the textbook version theory of the optimal tariff in partial equilibrium. Rationalization of these effects suggests a political-economy view on tariff formation in general equilibrium.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2013_2014/01_DachsEbersberger_PolicyNote.pdf

Abstract: A strong innovation performance based on R&D, product development and the implementation of advanced production technologies is key for the long-term competitiveness of European economies. This study investigates the effects of production offshoring on R&D and innovation activities of the firm in the home country. The analysis is based on a dataset of more than 3000 manufacturing firms from seven European countries. We employ propensity score matching to compare R&D and innovation activities of firms which have offshored production activities in a previous period to a control group of non-offshoring firms. The analysis finds no negative effect of production offshoring on innovation and technological capabilities of firms in the home country. On contrary, offshoring firms spend significantly more on R&D or product design, and invest more in process innovation than non-offshoring firms. These results support a view on internationalisation of firms that regards offshoring as a strategy of international expansion, and not a passive reaction of firms to a loss of their competitiveness. Our results indicate that this expansion goes hand in hand with innovation and process modernization at home.

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File:	fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2013_2014/01_DachsEbersberger_ResearchReport.pdf

Abstract: A strong innovation performance based on R&D, product development and the implementation of advanced production technologies is key for the long-term competitiveness of European economies. This study investigates the effects of production offshoring on R&D and innovation activities of the firm in the home country. The analysis is based on a dataset of more than 3000 manufacturing firms from seven European countries. We employ propensity score matching to compare R&D and innovation activities of firms which have offshored production activities in a previous period to a control group of non-offshoring firms. The analysis finds no negative effect of production offshoring on innovation and technological capabilities of firms in the home country. On contrary, offshoring firms spend significantly more on R&D or product design, and invest more in process innovation than non-offshoring firms. These results support a view on internationalisation of firms that regards offshoring as a strategy of international expansion, and not a passive reaction of firms to a loss of their competitiveness. Our results indicate that this expansion goes hand in hand with innovation and process modernization at home.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_124-KichkoKokovinZhelobodko.pdf

Abstract: We develop a two-factor, two-sector trade model of monopolistic competition with variable elasticity of substitution. Firm profit and firm size may increase or decrease with market integration depending on the degree of asymmetry between countries. The country in which capital is relatively abundant is a net exporter of the manufactured good, while both firms' size and profits are lower in this country than in the country where capital is relatively scarce. By contrast, the pricing policy adopted by firms does not depend on capital endowment and country asymmetry. It is determined by the nature of preferences: when demand elasticity increases (decreases) with consumption, firms practice dumping (reverse-dumping).

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_123-Cheikh.pdf

Abstract: This paper investigates whether the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to CPI inflation is a nonlinear phenomenon for five heavily indebted euro area (EA) countries, namely the so-called GIIPS group (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain). Using logistic smooth transition models, we explore the existence of nonlinearity with respect to sovereign bond yield spreads (versus German) as an indicator of confidence crisis/macroeconomic instability. Our results provide strong evidence that the extent of ERPT is higher in periods of macroeconomic distress, i.e. when sovereign bond yield spreads exceed some threshold. For all the GIIPS countries, we reveal that the increasing of macroeconomic instability and the loss of confidence during the recent sovereign debt crisis has entailed a higher sensibility of CPI inflation to exchange rate movements.

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Abstract: Most firm-level research on the characteristics and strategies of globalized firms focuses on manufacturing industries while firm-level evidence on trade in services is still rare and has just recently begun to emerge. This study uses an unique dataset of Austrian service exporting firms over a four-year period to add to this literature. We show that service export participation is very low and highly concentrated among a few firms and that service exporters are on average larger and more productive than non-exporters. We also find that firm productivity increases with the number of export markets served. The detailed analysis on the export premium suggests the self-selection of firms as well as learning effects from exporting for export starters. The dynamic analysis reveals that the rate of export exits is high for export starters in the first year of exporting, especially for firms of small size. Movements into and out of exporting are however less frequent than moving in and out of individual markets. Entry and exit of markets (extensive margin) is an important component of overall export flows, especially for less popular markets, overall, however the intensive margin of trade contributes most. Analysis based on a Heckman sample selection specification including firm characteristics as well as the standard gravity variables on geographical characteristics of destination markets confirm this finding. In particular, distance to the destination market, firm productivity as well as destination market characteristics (market size, policy environment) significantly influence the probability of exporting but even more so the volume of service trade flows. Results from the counterfactual analysis suggest that export market growth and policy reforms produce the relative strongest impact on the entry into new markets. Hence, this decomposition of overall export growth into contributions attributable to the extensive and intensive margin allow for new insights for economic policy.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2012_13/05-ExecutiveSummary-ChristenPfaffermayrWolfmayr.pdf

Abstract: Most firm-level research on the characteristics and strategies of globalized firms focuses on manufacturing industries while firm-level evidence on trade in services is still rare and has just recently begun to emerge. This study uses an unique dataset of Austrian service exporting firms over a four-year period to add to this literature. We show that service export participation is very low and highly concentrated among a few firms and that service exporters are on average larger and more productive than non-exporters. We also find that firm productivity increases with the number of export markets served. The detailed analysis on the export premium suggests the self-selection of firms as well as learning effects from exporting for export starters. The dynamic analysis reveals that the rate of export exits is high for export starters in the first year of exporting, especially for firms of small size. Movements into and out of exporting are however less frequent than moving in and out of individual markets. Entry and exit of markets (extensive margin) is an important component of overall export flows, especially for less popular markets, overall, however the intensive margin of trade contributes most. Analysis based on a Heckman sample selection specification including firm characteristics as well as the standard gravity variables on geographical characteristics of destination markets confirm this finding. In particular, distance to the destination market, firm productivity as well as destination market characteristics (market size, policy environment) significantly influence the probability of exporting but even more so the volume of service trade flows. Results from the counterfactual analysis suggest that export market growth and policy reforms produce the relative strongest impact on the entry into new markets. Hence, this decomposition of overall export growth into contributions attributable to the extensive and intensive margin allow for new insights for economic policy.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2012_13/05-PolicyNotet-ChristenPfaffermayrWolfmayr.pdf

Abstract: Most firm-level research on the characteristics and strategies of globalized firms focuses on manufacturing industries while firm-level evidence on trade in services is still rare and has just recently begun to emerge. This study uses an unique dataset of Austrian service exporting firms over a four-year period to add to this literature. We show that service export participation is very low and highly concentrated among a few firms and that service exporters are on average larger and more productive than non-exporters. We also find that firm productivity increases with the number of export markets served. The detailed analysis on the export premium suggests the self-selection of firms as well as learning effects from exporting for export starters. The dynamic analysis reveals that the rate of export exits is high for export starters in the first year of exporting, especially for firms of small size. Movements into and out of exporting are however less frequent than moving in and out of individual markets. Entry and exit of markets (extensive margin) is an important component of overall export flows, especially for less popular markets, overall, however the intensive margin of trade contributes most. Analysis based on a Heckman sample selection specification including firm characteristics as well as the standard gravity variables on geographical characteristics of destination markets confirm this finding. In particular, distance to the destination market, firm productivity as well as destination market characteristics (market size, policy environment) significantly influence the probability of exporting but even more so the volume of service trade flows. Results from the counterfactual analysis suggest that export market growth and policy reforms produce the relative strongest impact on the entry into new markets. Hence, this decomposition of overall export growth into contributions attributable to the extensive and intensive margin allow for new insights for economic policy.

File:

fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2013_2014/01_DachsEbersberger_ExecutiveSummary.pdf

Abstract: A strong innovation performance based on R&D, product development and the implementation of advanced production technologies is key for the long-term competitiveness of European economies. This study investigates the effects of production offshoring on R&D and innovation activities of the firm in the home country. The analysis is based on a dataset of more than 3000 manufacturing firms from seven European countries. We employ propensity score matching to compare R&D and innovation activities of firms which have offshored production activities in a previous period to a control group of non-offshoring firms. The analysis finds no negative effect of production offshoring on innovation and technological capabilities of firms in the home country. On contrary, offshoring firms spend significantly more on R&D or product design, and invest more in process innovation than non-offshoring firms. These results support a view on internationalisation of firms that regards offshoring as a strategy of international expansion, and not a passive reaction of firms to a loss of their competitiveness. Our results indicate that this expansion goes hand in hand with innovation and process modernization at home.

Abstract: FIW publishes quarterly FIW Notes. They present an overview of the most important Austrian and international developments regarding international economics. There is only a German version available.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_125-FurlanGaechterKrebsOberhofer.pdf

Abstract: This paper empirically assesses how democratization affects real exchange rates. By doing this, we combine so far separated strands of the economic literature and argue that democratization reduces currency undervaluation leading to a real exchange rate appreciation. We test this hypothesis empirically for a sample of countries observed from 1980 to 2007 by combining a difference-in-difference (DID) approach with propensity score matching (PSM) estimators. Our results reveal a strong and significant finding: democratization causes real exchange rates to appreciate. Consequently, the ongoing process of democratization observed in a few Arabic and Moslem countries is likely to reduce exchange rate distortions.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_115-DluhoschHorgosZimmermann.pdf

Abstract: Studies on EU enlargement mostly focus on its welfare-economic and much less so on its public-choice dimension. Yet, the latter may be as important as the former when it comes to sustain integration. This paper aims at filling the gap by exploring theoretically and empirically how enlargement of multi-level systems like the EU affects satisfaction with democracy (SWD) and voter turnout (PART). In order to assess the effects of a widening in membership, we present a novel approach that draws on the probability of being outvoted. We find that, given the institutional arrangement, enlargement tends to depress SWD. Our theoretical results are backed by empirical evidence in German Eurobarometer data displaying a tendency towards a decline in SWD that shows up in a significant fall in PART with growth in EU-membership.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_117-PoeschlFoster.pdf

Abstract: The paper addresses the link between productivity and labour mobility. The hypothesis tested is that technology is transmitted across industries through the movement of skilled workers embodying human capital. The embodied knowledge is then diffused within the new environment creating spillovers and leading to productivity improvements. The empirical analysis is based on household survey and industry-level data for a sample of 12 EU countries covering the years 1995-2005. The estimates document the importance of positive cross-sectoral knowledge spillovers and indicate that labour mobility has considerable beneficial effects on industry productivity. Possible endogeneity problems related to labour mobility are tackled by employing a two stage instrumental variables approach. Moreover we show that the spillover effects vary considerably by technology level of the giving industry. While workers moving away from high and medium-tech industries are found to produce positive productivity effects for the receiving industry, no effect is found for those coming from low-tech industries.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_121-DefeverRiano.pdf

Abstract: One third of Chinese exporters sell more than ninety percent of their production abroad. We argue that this distinctive pattern is attributable to the widespread use of subsidies that require firms to export the vast majority of their output. We study this type of subsidy in the context of a heterogeneous-firm model, and show that it is worse from a welfare standpoint than a regular export subsidy, partly because it increases protection of the domestic market. A counterfactual analysis suggests that eliminating these subsidies would result in a welfare gain for China comparable to that of halving its trade costs.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_120-DonaubauerHerzerNunnenkamp.pdf

Abstract: We address the question of whether foreign aid helps attract foreign direct investment (FDI). This could be achieved if well targeted aid removed critical impediments to higher FDI inflows. In particular, we test the hypothesis that aid for education is an effective means to increase FDI flows to host countries in Latin America where schooling and education appears to be inadequate from the viewpoint of foreign investors. We employ panel data techniques covering 21 Latin American countries over the period from 1984 to 2008. We find that aid for education has a statistically significant positive effect on FDI. This effect is robust to potential outliers, sample selection, alternative specifications and different estimation methods.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_116-DregerZhang.pdf

Abstract: The Chinese economic development affects GDP growth and inflation in the advanced countries. A GVAR approach is used to model the interdependencies between the business cycles in China and industrial countries, including the US, the euro area and Japan. For robustness, the results are compared to those obtained by leading structural econometric models, such as NiGEM and OEF. Evidence is based on the responses to a Chinese shock stemming from the recent fiscal stimulus package. The results indicate that the impact on GDP growth in the advanced economies is substantial for the Asian region. The expansionary effects to the US and the euro area responses are much lower and decrease due to rising inflation pressure. The analysis also reveals that China is still highly vulnerable to shocks in industrial countries, including the government debt crisis in the euro area.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_122-Sampson.pdf

Abstract: This paper develops an open economy growth model in which firm heterogeneity increases the gains from trade. Technology spillovers from incumbent firms to entrants cause the productivity threshold for firm survival to grow over time as competition becomes tougher. By raising the profits of exporters, trade increases the entry rate and generates a dynamic selection effect that leads to higher growth. The paper shows that the gains from trade can be decomposed into: static gains that equal the total gains from trade in an economy without technology spillovers, and; dynamic gains that are strictly positive. Since trade raises growth through selection, not scale effects, the positive growth effect of trade vanishes when firms are homogeneous. Thus, firm heterogeneity creates a new source of dynamic gains from trade. Calibrating the model to the U.S. economy implies that dynamic selection approximately triples the gains from trade.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_119-DregerWolters.pdf

Abstract: This paper examines the stability of money demand and the forecasting performance of a broad monetary aggregate (M3) in predicting euro area inflation. Excess liquidity is measured as the difference between the actual money stock and its fundamental value, the latter determined by a money demand function. The out-of sample forecasting performance is compared to widely used alternatives, such as the term structure of interest rates. The results indicate that the evolution of M3 is still in line with money demand even in the period of the financial and economic crisis. Monetary indi-cators are useful to predict inflation, if the forecasting equations are based on measures of excess liquidity.