FIW Working Papers

Alessia Campolmi, Harald Fadinger, Chiara Forlati

Abstract

We study trade policy in a two-sector Krugman type model of trade. We conduct a general analysis allowing for three different instruments: tariffs, export taxes and production subsidies. For each instrument we consider unilateral trade policy without retaliation. When carefully disentangling the different effects that determine policy makers' choices and modeling general equilibrium effects of taxes/tariffs, we find that production subsidies are always inefficiently low and driven by terms of trade effects. In the cases of tariffs and export taxes the home market effect prevails for some parameter combinations but mostly trade policy is determined by terms of trade effects and the desire to reduce distortions arising from monopolistic competition. Hence, our analysis sheds new light on trade policy in a model of intra-industry trade.

Richard Frensch

Abstract

Trade policy has well documented effects on trade volumes. Reaching beyond volumes, I explore the impact of European emerging economies’ recent institutional trade liberalisation on extensive (i.e., the set of imported goods) versus intensive import margins (volumes per imported good) with highly disaggregated data. Differentiating goods categories by use, I find robust evidence of stronger extensive import margin effects of liberalisation for intermediate and capital goods compared to consumer goods. This identifies an important channel for the link between reforms and growth in transition. The results also support new models of heterogeneous firms and trade, which predict that extensive import margin effects of a country’s institutional trade liberalisation should – via lowering fixed costs for rest of the world exporters – increase with decreasing substitutability among products.

Atilim Seymen

Abstract

The study investigates the business cycle dynamics in the euro area using an empirical framework which comprises common global and euro area shocks as well as allows bilateral spillovers of country-specific shocks across the member economies. Three core questions lie at the heart of the analysis: (i) To what extent are the business cycles of the euro area countries driven by common and spillover shocks? (ii) What are the extent and sources of business cycle heterogeneity in the euro area? (iii) Which mechanisms led to the moderation of business cycle activity in the euroarea until recently?

Gurnain Kaur Pasricha

Abstract

In the debate on the benefits of international financial integration, recent literature has emphasized the development of domestic markets as a

precondition. This paper offers an alternative view. Lack of competition in

domestic financial systems may prevent countries from reaping the benefits of

international integration simply because it prevents them from being

integrated in a meaningful way - that of price equalization. A new index of

de-facto financial integration is used to explore this question and confirms a

strong link. The level of de-jure controls, volatility and institutions matter for

price integration but their importance differs between developed and

developing countries.

PHAM Thi Hong Hanh

Abstract

Needless to say, it is necessary to study the relative scales of the trade creation effect and the trade diversion effect to evaluate success of ASEAN trade integration and to determine whether or not the intra-bloc trade share is appropriate as an indicator of the progress of reducing intra-regional disparities in ASEAN. Therefore, this paper first uses descriptive statistics and some key indicators to track the progress in economic growth and in trade integration that is the main pillar of building ASEAN Economic Community. Second, we make an attempt to provide answers to the question of whether trade integration matters for reducing intra-regional disparities among ASEAN member states over the period 1995-2007. We perform the panel co-integration method developed by Pedroni (1999) that allows for heterogeneity across ten ASEAN countries. Our major finding shows that trade integration, which is captured by intra-regional exports and imports flows, is appropriate as an indicator of progress of reducing income disparities in

the ASEAN zone. Finally, applying the General Method of Moments (GMM) estimation, we also find that deepening of intra-regional trade integration creates more trade flows among ASEAN member states without diverting trade flows with non-members.

Anna Ferragina, Rosanna Pittiglio and Filippo Reganati

Abstract

The aim of the analysis is to investigate the impact of inward FDI on Italian manufacturing and services firm survival. The paper is organized in two steps. First, we carry out theoretically and empirically the analysis of firm survival distinguishing between foreign multinationals, domestic multinationals and domestic non multinational firms. The empirical analysis is based on survival functions as well as a Cox proportional hazard model, controlling for firm and industry specific covariates. Second, we examine the effect of foreign presence on the survival of host country firms distinguishing between the impact on Italian-owned (indigenous) multinational and non multinational firms and on other foreign-owned firms (i.e., other MNEs) located in the host country. The finding reveals that during the period 2005-2007 while manufacturing and service firms owned by foreign MNEs are more likely to exit the market than national firms, on the other hand domestic MNEs have a higher chance of survival. These results stand even when other firm and industry specific variables are controlled for. This result support the idea that foreign MNEs are inherently footloose while Italian MNEs are more firmly rooted in the local economy. The estimates also indicate that older, larger and more productive firms have higher survival rates. Finally, firm survival of foreign MNEs and domestic MNEs is unaffected by the increased presence of foreign MNEs. On the other hand, the increased foreign presence has a positive impact on Italian non-MNEs’ survival only in the service sector.

Fritz Breuss and Jorge A. Fornero

Abstract

We build a fully micro-founded dynamic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, which is estimated employing Bayesian methods. The model captures the most salient features of Austria as a small open economy, the Euro Area (EA) and the United States (U.S.). Further analysis is conducted through numerical simulations to examine how nominal and real shocks are propagated. Besides, welfare costs of nominal rigidities are calculated. We distinguish two sample periods, ‘pre-EMU’ and ‘EMU’. In the former, we maintain the assumption of full commitment of respective (independent) Central Banks towards their monetary rules, whereas in the latter, the monetary policy of Austria is fully aligned with the European Central Bank.

Main results are derived from Bayesian estimation and simulation of the estimated model. Welfare calculations from the estimated model suggest that in the pre-EMU period, the EA and Austria present welfare costs close to one percent of steady-state consumption, whereas the U.S. welfare costs is slightly higher (-1.52 percent). As it would be expected, in the second subsample, welfare costs in the EA decrease, indicating an improvement in the allocation during the EMU regime (similarly in the U.S.), whereas in Austria welfare costs go up.

Amedeo Argentiero

Abstract

This paper implements a methodology to evaluate the desiderability of monetary and fiscal rules within the context of the EMU using a DSGE model within a New Keynesian framework with sticky prices. The approach adopted is a welfare-based criterion that measures the welfare losses associated with these rules through a welfare loss function. Monetary policy follows a standard Taylor rule augmented by a stochastic component, driven by a union-wide monetary shock, whereas fiscal policy is made up of a countercyclical and debt-stabilizing public expenditure and of distortionary taxation on labor, dividends and interests on public bonds.

We find that: 1) in the presence of our monetary rule alone, domestic inflation variance falls more than in the only presence of fiscal rules, whereas output gap smoothing is stronger in the only presence of fiscal rules; 2) the combination of our monetary rule and fiscal rules reduces welfare losses more than the same rules singly considered.

Edith Skriner

Abstract

This constant-market-shares (CMS) analysis shows the development of competitiveness, market and product structure of the Austrian merchandise exports from 1990 to 2006. The traditional CMS application was transformed to a dynamic model, such that the static indicators have been replaced by time series. This dynamic consideration of the CMS analysis helps to track all changes in the trade structure and competitiveness over time. The long-term trend of the indicators suggests that the Austrian foreign trade sector was able to maintain its market share in the global environment. While the Austrian foreign trade performance only slightly deviates from the pattern of the traditional industrialised countries, a strong structural change is observable in the external sector of the emerging markets. The disadvantages in competitiveness of the Austrian foreign sector have vanished, however, the market and product structure effects show negative trends after 2000, pointing to vulnerability in the Austrian export sector.

Lukas Mohler

Abstract

Since the pioneering work of Krugman (1980) economists try to quantify the welfare gains from an increase in traded variety. The seminal work of Feenstra (1994) and its application to the U.S. of Broda and Weinstein (2006) allowed this quantification for the first time using highly disaggregated trade data. In this paper it is argued that size and openness of a country are important factors in determining these welfare gains. The gains from traded variety of a small open economy are calculated and compared to those of the U.S.; the differences between the countries are then analysed carefully. To achieve this, the methodology of Feenstra (1994) is extended. While the Armington definition of a variety forces the researcher to assume no growth at the extensive margin, in this paper the Feenstra ratios are reinterpreted in a way that allows for full growth at the extensive margin. The resulting two polar cases will influence the country comparison with respect to the gains from variety: Depending on how much growth at the extensive margin a researcher is willing to assume, the relative gains from variety of a small open economy compared to a larger economy like the U.S. are changed. It is also argued that this result may hold generally for other small and large OECD economies.

Kemal Türkcan

Abstract

A distinctive feature of present globalization is the development of international production sharing activities i.e. production fragmentation. The increased importance of fragmentation in world trade has created an interest among trade economists in explaining the determinants of intra-industry trade (IIT) in intermediate goods. In this study the extent of IIT in Austria’s auto-parts trade is analyzed by decomposing Austria’s auto-parts trade into one-way trade, vertical IIT and horizontal intra-industry trade IIT. Then development of the vertical IIT in the auto-parts industry, as an indicator for international fragmentation of production process between Austria and its 29 trading partners, is examined and various country-specific factors suggested by fragmentation literature are tested using newly developed panel econometrics techniques and more recent data from 1996 to 2006. The results show that a substantial part of IIT in the Austrian auto-parts industry was vertical IIT and the econometric results mainly support the hypothesis drawn from the fragmentation results. In particular, the findings show that the extent of Austria’s vertical IIT in auto-parts is positively correlated with average market size, differences in per capita GDP, and foreign direct investment while it is negatively correlated with distance.

Haluk Erlat

Abstract

Testing whether real exchange rates are stationary and, thereby, obtaining evidence of whether the absolute version of the purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis holds, have, initially, be done by using the ADF statistic to test for a unit root. Subsequently, to mitigate the low power of the ADF test, several alternatives have been used for the same purpose. Panel unit root testing is one of these alternatives. In Erlat (2003), I had previously considered two other alternatives; namely, introducing multiple structural shifts in the deterministic terms and fractional integration, in the context of the two primary bilateral Turkish real exchange rates; the $US and the German DM based rates. This investigation did indicate that these two rates may, in fact, be taken to be stationary with significant long-memory components. In the present paper, I utilise panel procedures to see if they, also, give corroborating evidence. I used monthly data for the period 1984.01-2001.06 and constructed a panel of 17 bilateral CPI-based real exchange rates corresponding to Turkey's main trading partners for which complete data were available. I implemented seven panel procedures. The first two, Levin, Lin and Chu (LLC) (2002) and Im, Pesaran and Shin (IPS) (2003) are the most commonly used procedures. LLC assumes a common coefficient for the lagged dependent variable in the autoregressions while IPS recognises the full heterogeneity of the coefficients. The third procedure utilised, Hadri (2000), also assumes full heterogeneity but has stationarity as its null hypothesis. These three procedures take account of the dependence between the series that make up the panel by subtracting the means obtained for each time period across cross sections, from the observations. On the other hand, the remaining four procedures, due to Taylor and Sarno (TS) (1998), Breuer, McNown and Wallace (BMW) (2001), Pesaran (P) (2007)and Bai and Ng (BN) (2004a) handle the problem of dependence in a somewhat more elaborate manner. TS and BMW do this by considering the autoregressions corresponding to each series as set of seemingly unrelated regressions. TS consider a joint test of a unit root while BMW consider individual tests, thereby complementing each other. P and BN, on the other hand, assume that there is a common factor in the panel of series. P adds this common factor, proxied by the time-wise mean, as a regressor to the autoregressions and performs the ADF test while BN decompose the series into this common factor and the idiosyncratic components and test for a unit root in both components, thereby enabling us to determine the source of the persistence if it exists. Of these seven procedures, LLC and IPS lead to the rejection of the null hypothesis of a unit root, while Hadri, TS and BMW do not. The LLC result has the, rather sharp, implication that all 17 series are stationary which, obviously, is not realistic. The IPS result, on the other hand, implies that, at least one series is stationary. This is corroborated by individual ADF tests for, say, the UK, Italy, France, the Netherlands and Belgium based series. The same corroboration is, however, lacking from the other panel approaches, implying that the evidence about the stationarity of the Turkish real exchange rate is mixed and not very strong if panel procedures are used alone as an alternative to univariate ADF tests. Structural shifts in the deterministic terms may need to be introduced into these procedures to obtain stronger evidence of stationarity but this is the subject of further research.

Maela Giofre

Abstract

This paper demonstrates that, after integration, equity portfolios of countries that joined the European Monetary Union have converged at faster rate than those of NON EMU countries. This outcome can be interpreted as a combination of the convergence of inflation rates and the convergence of investment barriers. On the one hand, the common monetary policy might have driven a stronger comovement in inflation rates, leading to increasingly similar hedging strategies among member countries. On the other hand, exposure to the common currency might have homogenized bilateral investment barriers, thus inducing increasingly similar portfolio allocations among member countries. We find that the comovement of inflation rates has not significantly increased after EMU inception, pointing toward an exclusive role for convergence in investment barriers.

Daniel Horgos

Abstract

International Outsourcing effects on labor markets are mostly analyzed within flexible wage settings. Using a modern duality approach, this paper formally investigates differences occurring in industries with low skilled wage rigidity and, for the first time in literature, presents empirical evidence supporting the theoretical findings. Using a logit model to analyze microeconomic German panel data, results show that International Outsourcing significantly increases low skilled unemployment when taking place in industries characterized by low skilled wage rigidity. Thus, in terms of unemployment, not International Outsourcing but inflexible labor market institutions instead should be blamed for harming low skilled labor.

Dierk Herzer

Abstract

This paper makes two contributions to the literature on the impact of trade on income. First, we use heterogeneous panel cointegration techniques that are robust to omitted variables and endogenous regressors to estimate the effect of trade on income for 81 developed and developing countries, both for the sample as a whole and for each individual country. Second, we use a general-to-specific variable selection approach to identify important determinants of the effect of trade on income. Our main findings are: (i) A one percent increase in the trade share of GDP yields, on average, a statistically significant increase in income per worker of about 0.16 percent. This result is in contrast to previous studies, which tend to produce either unreasonably large or statistically insignificant estimates of the impact of trade on income. (ii) There are large cross-country differences in the income effects of trade, in particular between developed and developing countries. For developed countries the income effect of trade is positive, whereas trade has, on average, a negative impact on income in developing countries. (iii) The cross-country heterogeneity in the impact of trade on income can be explained mainly by cross-country differences in primary export dependence, labour market regulation, and property rights protection. The level of property rights protection is positively related, while the level of primary export dependence and labour market regulation is negatively related to the income effect of trade.

Domenico Buccella

Abstract

Key aspects in economic integrated areas like the EU are both the internationalization of productive activities, which usually occurs in unionized countries, and the ongoing process of labor market integration. In a symmetric two-country duopoly model with integrated product markets, this paper investigates the incentives for unions to coordinate wage demands in the presence of transaction costs. It shows that, contrary to conventional wisdom, under certain conditions wage coordination could lead from a social point of view to a Pareto superior outcome respect to separate wage settings.

Alfred Sitz and Friedrich Sindermann

Abstract

In this paper we investigate "integrated equilibria" of two-country models. Extending the basic framework non-traded goods as well as minimum wages are introduced and their effects on the models' results are studied. Finally, the consequences of three types of labor "shocks" are analyzed.

Nicolas Sauter

Abstract

This paper tests for one mechanism that can explain the existence of a language barrier to trade. Specifically, I ask if those industries that require more cross-border communication in order to export their products trade more between Canadian provinces that know the other's language(s). I find that trade in industries with a need to communicate directly (orally) with importers increases with the probability that people in another province speak the same language. This finding can fill a missing link in the empirical trade literature, which lacked convincing arguments for the observed correlation between language commonality and the total volume of trade.

Hans Fehr, Sabine Jokisch and Laurence J. Kotlikoff

Abstract

Will incomes of low and high skilled workers continue to diverge? Yes says our paper's dynamic, six-good, five-region - U.S., Europe, N.E. Asia (Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong), China, and India -, general equilibrium, life-cycle model. The model predicts a near doubling of the ratio of high- to low-skilled wages over the century. Increasing wage inequality arises from a traditional source - a rising worldwide relative supply of unskilled labor, reflecting Chinese and Indian productivity improvements. But China's and India's education policies matter. If successive Chinese and Indian cohorts become more skilled, major exacerbation of inequality will be precluded.

Fergal McCann

Abstract

The causality from outsourcing, defined as the procurement of inputs from outside the boundaries of the firm, to productivity is tested for a large panel of Irish manufacturing firms. Theory suggests that as firms outsource more 'non-core' activities to specialized providers, productivity due to the firm benefiting from cheaper or higher-quality inputs and from reallocation of resources towards higher value-added activities. The international outsourcing case adds another dimension in the form of input variety, quality and technological embeddedness. I test the above hypothesis using a "System GMM" estimator to control for endogeneity in the panel and allow for a lagged dependent variable to be a regressor. International outsourcing is found to lead to productivity gains, but upon closer inspection it seems that firms’ international orientation and type of industry both matter.

Aidan Islyami

Abstract

In this paper a stylized CGE model is constructed to study the impact of liberalization of barriers for foreign providers of intermediate producer services under imperfect competition on the welfare, the downstream industry output, the prices of the factors of production and the pattern of trade. An attempt is made at incorporating oligopoly market structure into the services sector within general equilibrium model. Consequently, a model with firms making output conjectures about domestic and foreign rivals is adopted. The case of a small developing country with less efficient services sector relative to the foreign firms is assumed. In this framework, interaction and the relative significance of mechanisms resulting from the love of variety, anti and pro competitive and the efficiency effects on the outcomes of the services liberalization is analyzed. It is found that the liberalization services trade might be negative in terms of welfare and downstream industry expansion even if the profits of the foreign firms are not shifted abroad. This represents the evidence of dominant anticompetitive effect. It is therefore important to take into consideration the underlying market structure while liberalizing services trade.

Merita Zulfiu

Abstract

Using a panel dataset of bilateral flows of foreign direct investment (FDI), we study the determinants of FDI in transition economies, with particular reference to Macedonia’s performance. As many transition countries, Macedonia has a low FDI potential and performance. The empirical work confirms the expectation of the positive feedback effect of past FDI onto current FDI. We do not have enough large dataset to say that all other variables, such as the GDP of the host and source country, unit labour cost, trade, inflation, legal environment, distance, and dummy variables capturing the language, common border and colonizing effect, do not have an effect on FDI stocks. Our suggestion is that all the econometric findings on the determinants of FDI in transition economies using small dataset and static models should be accepted only with caution.

Tomáš Slacík

Abstract

In the present study we analyse relevant macro- and microeconomic forces driving inflation in the Czech Republic with a particular focus on how these channels are likely to change in the wake of euro adoption. We employ an ARDL model combined with the Bayesian Model Averaging technique. In order to carry out this analysis, we also estimate the time-varying natural rate of interest purged from the risk premium. Our results suggest that the costs arising from the discontinuation of nominal trend appreciation of the koruna after euro adoption are likely to be rather low. In contrast, a low inflation environment and a harmonization of the business cycles between the Czech Republic and the euro area are essential for ensuring that inflation hikes will remain limited after the euro adoption. The fulfilment of the Maastricht inflation criterion should not be enforced by policy measures that would artificially reduce inflation temporarily. The potential inflationary effect of the changeover cannot be eliminated altogether but it may well be substantially reduced by applying best practices based on the experience of current euro area participants.

Fritz Breuss and Katrin Rabitsch

Abstract

We present a two-country New Open Economy Macro model of the Austrian economy within the European Union's Economic & Monetary Union (EMU). The model includes both nominal and real frictions that have proven to be important in matching business cycle facts, and that allows for an investigation of the effects and cross-country transmission of a number of structural shocks: shocks to technologies, shocks to preferences, cost-push type shocks and policy shocks. The model is estimated using Bayesian methods on quarterly data covering the period of 1976:Q1-2005:Q1. In addition to the assessment of the relative importance of various shocks, the model also allows to investigate effects of the monetary regime switch with the final stage of the EMU and investigates in how far this has altered macroeconomic transmission. We find that Austria's economy appears to react stronger to demand shocks, while in the rest of the Euro Area supply shocks have a stronger impact. Comparing the estimations on pre-EMU and EMU subsamples we find that the contribution of (rest of the) Euro Area shocks to Austria's business cycle fluctuations has increased significantly.

Domenico Buccella

Abstract

This work analyzes the difference between trade policy and competition policy for prices, wages, employment and national welfare when both product and labor markets are imperfectly competitive. Trade and competition policies have different impact on the domestic labor market when it is unionized. While competitive policies increase union welfare, imports from a foreign country reduce it. Competition policy in the presence of national labor unions does not reduce labor market distortions, while competition induced by trade policy from a foreign exporter reduces both labor and product market distortions and competition is harsher as long as a foreign union is more employment oriented. The impact of both policies on the domestic welfare level is analyzed.

Heinz Hollenstein

Abstract

The aim of the paper is, firstly, to identify a number of strategies Swiss firms pursue by performing foreign R&D, expecting that firms, in many instances, are driven by a combination of several motives (“mixed strategies”). Secondly, we ask whether foreign and domestic R&D are substitutes or complements. Thirdly, we draw some policy conclusions based on results for direct and indirect home-country effects of foreign R&D. By applying cluster analysis, we identified four specific patterns of motives of foreign R&D. In a second step, we investigated whether these clusters effectively may be interpreted as specific types of R&D strategies. To this end, the clusters were characterised in terms of a large number of variables, which, according to the OLI paradigm of FDI, determine foreign R&D. We found that the patterns of the four clusters systematically differ with respect to these theory-related variables. Some clusters represent, in terms of motives, broad-based mixed strategies, whereas others are strongly focused. It turns out that foreign R&D strategies that primarily aim at exploiting capabilities of the domestic headquarters dominate, whereas cost-reducing strategies are of very minor importance. In case of the other two strategies knowledge sourcing is a constituent element, in the first one, knowledge sourcing is at the core, in the second case it is an important element in the frame of a broad-based strategy. The relative importance of the four strategies implies that, on balance, foreign and domestic R&D are complements. Notwithstanding this positive result, it is sensible to take policy actions supporting the economy to capitalise even more on outward FDI in R&D. Policy basically should aim at securing the attractiveness of Switzerland as a location for R&D-intensive headquarters of firms performing foreign R&D, and at enhancing knowledge spillovers from headquarter companies to other domestic firms. The five categories of measures we recommend are part of a framework-oriented policy design rather than of a more interventionist concept.

Gabriel J. Felbermayr and Benjamin Jung

Abstract

Trade economists traditionally study the effect of lower variable trade costs. While increasingly important politically, technical barriers to trade (TBTs) have received less attention. Viewing TBTs as fixed regulatory costs related to the entry into export markets, we use a model with heterogeneous firms, trade in differentiated goods, and variable external economies of scale to sort out the rich interactions between TBT reform, input diversity, firm-level productivity, and aggregate productivity. We calibrate the model for 14 industries in order to clarify the theoretical ambiguities. Overall, our results tend to suggest beneficial effects of TBT reform but also reveal interesting sectoral variation.

Christine Beijnen and Wilko Bolt

Abstract

This paper investigates the existence and extent of economies of scale in the European payment processing industry. It is expected that the creation of a Single European Payments Area (SEPA) will spur consolidations and mergers among European payment processors to more fully realize payment economies of scale. We find evidence for the existence of significant economies of scale using data of eight European payment processors during the years 1990-2005. The analysis also reveals that ownership structure is an important factor to explain cost differences across European ACHs.

Harald Oberhofer and Michael Pfaffermayr

Abstract

There are two main options for companies to serve foreign markets; exports and foreign direct investment (FDI). Based on the Helpman, Melitz and Yeaple (2004) model for two host countries this paper derives a clear theoretical prediction for the decision between both strategies. A bivariate probit model is estimated using AMADEUS database to analyse the probability of using one or the other strategy. The empirical evidence indicates that a considerable number of companies use a combination of both strategies to serve foreign markets, which is in line with the analyzed three country model.

Guido K. Schaefer

Abstract

Under which conditions is it advantageous for countries to form a single payments area? This question is analyzed in a model of spatial bank competition to understand better the economic foundations of the Single Euro Payments Area (SEPA). An economic research perspective on the mostly informal policy debates about SEPA is developed. The analysis suggests that expectations about the positive effects of SEPA may be exaggerated as most channels for enhancing public welfare seem rather weak. Still the project may be worthwhile undertaking if the cost of creating SEPA-compliant systems is reduced by extending the time frame for the implementation phase and if the use of electronic payments is promoted.

Harald Badinger

Abstract

This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of the relation between inflation and globalization, measured in terms of trade and financial openness. Using a large crosssection of 91 countries covering the period 1985-2004, we establish two main empirical regularities. Both higher trade and financial openness i) reduce central bank’s inflation bias,yielding lower average inflation, and ii) are associated with a larger output-inflation tradeoff. This evidence is at odds with the standard Barro-Gordon framework, which would require globalization to have a negative effect on the output-inflation tradeoff to yield lower equilibrium inflation, but it is consistent with a recent strand of new Keynesian models emphasizing the role of imperfect competition and wage rigidities. Moreover, our findings do not hold up for the OECD subsample, which suggests that a group of highly developed countries has been successful in creating an institutional framework for central banks that eliminates distortions due to the time inconsistency problem.

Edith Skriner

Abstract

The theory suggests that investment activities and monetary policy influence the development of the global business cycle. The oil price and other raw material prices also play a key role in the economic development and there is a comovement among oil consumption and global output. Therefore, the aim of this study is to explain the development of this set of variables by ARs, small-scale VARs and ECMs. The lag length and the rank of the time series models have been determined using information criteria. Then one-step ahead forecasts have been generated. It was found, that the ARs generate the best forecasts at the beginning of the forecasting horizon. However, when the forecasting horizon increases the VARs outperform the ARs. Comparing the forecasting performance of the ECMs, it was found that the forecasting ability of the ECMs in first differences outperform the level based ECMs when the forecasting horizon increases.

Fritz Breuss

Abstract

Advanced industrial countries have been exhibiting a steady decline of the labor income shares in the last two decades. We explain this phenomenon by resorting to the old Stolper-Samuelson theorem. The conclusions concerning the impact of free trade on the income distribution are unambiguous in a Heckscher-Ohlin world with two countries, two goods and two factors of production (capital and labor). In contrast, the consequences of FDI from the capital abundant country (EU) to the labor abundant CEEC are ambiguous. Both scenarios are investigated theoretically and then simulated with a hypothetical two country CGE model, including the EU and the CEEC. A panel regression for both regions separately, helps to decide empirically which influences on the development of the labor income shares are at work. Globalization, measured by revealed comparative advantage (increase in global net trade) has contributed to a decline in the labor income shares in the EU. Additionally, those countries which are engaged more in trade with the CEEC can expect a sharper decline in the wage share. Global net FDI outflow also exerts a negative influence on the labor income share in the EU. In the CEEC the increase in global net trade had a positive influence on the labor income share, trade with the EU, however, dampened the labor income share. FDI inflow increased the labor income share in the CEEC.

Fritz Breuss

Abstract

EU's 2007 enlargement by Bulgaria and Romania is evaluated by applying a simple macroeconomic integration model able to encompass as many of the theoretically predicted integration effects possible. The direct integration effects of Bulgaria and Romania spill-over to EU15, including Austria and the 10 new member states of the 2004 EU enlargement. The pattern of the integration effects is qualitatively similar to those of EU’s 2004 enlargement by 10 new member states. Bulgaria and Romania gain much more from EU accession than the incumbents in the proportion of 20:1. In the medium-run up to 2020, Bulgaria and Romania can expect a sizable overall integration gain, amounting to additional ½ percentage point real GDP growth per annum. Within the incumbent EU member states Austria will gain somewhat more (+0.05%) than the average of EU15 (+0.02%) and the 10 new EU member states (+0.01%), which joined the EU in 2004.

Robert Stehrer

Abstract

In the trade-technology-wage debate, the effects of the various forms of technical progress on relative factor prices have been addressed in a number of contributions over the past decade. However, the existing literature is far from conclusive. The various contributions have either relied on specific assumptions, such as Leontief technologies or Cobb-Douglas demand, that have been decisive for the respective conclusions, or they used a more general framework, arriving at ambiguous results in many cases. In this paper we analyse a general equilibrium framework with CES production and CES demand functions, which allows for any discrete number of sectors and countries integrated via trade flows. Technologies are country- and sector-specific and endowment structures differ across countries. The necessary and sufficient conditions under which the relative wage rates are rising or falling in the domestic and foreign economies are derived. This is done for various types of factor- and sector-biased technical change taking place in a particular sector in either the home or foreign country. The conditions - depending on the relative skill intensity of the innovating sector, the elasticities of substitution in demand and supply, the relative factor endowment and the prevailing (equilibrium) relative wage rate - allow for straightforward economic interpretations. This permits to solve the cases classified as ambiguous in the existing literature and provides clear-cut conditions which are important for modelling and empirical research. Furthermore, the results are interpreted with respect to recent empirical studies where special emphasis is given to the sector-biased versus factor-biased hypothesis.

Christian Keuschnigg

Abstract

This paper develops a model of a monopolistically competitive industry with extensive and intensive business investment and shows how these margins respond to changes in average and marginal corporate tax rates. Intensive investment refers to the size of a firm's capital stock. Extensive investment refers to the firm's production location and reflects the trade-off between exports and foreign direct investment as alternative modes of foreign market access. The paper derives comparative static effects of the corporate tax and shows how the cost of public funds depends on the measures of effective marginal and average tax rates and on the behavioral elasticities of extensive and intensive investment.

Andreas Breinbauer

Abstract

The article provides a general introductory overview of the (spatial) mobility of

highly skilled/qualified persons and discusses the different terms of the mobility of the Highly Skilled, especially those of scientists. It outlines theoretical and empirical aspects of these movements and delineates the drain of European talent to the U.S., especially the outflow of scientists and researchers who contribute considerably to the U.S. innovation system. Further, it takes a closer look at outward mobility in the former socialist countries in Europe, especially in South Eastern Europe, in the period before and after the fall of the Iron Curtain. Finally, the article outlines general policy options in dealing with the mobility of the Highly Qualified.

Peter Havlik

Abstract

This paper investigates the process of trade integration between the enlarged European Union and the Newly Independent States (NIS), focusing on the new EU member states (NMS) and selected NIS (Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova and Kazakhstan). The paper analyses the evolution of the regional and commodity composition of trade in the countries concerned. A detailed market share analysis reveals the emerging trade specialization patterns. There has been a general trade reorientation of both NMS and (less so) the NIS towards the West. The recent trade developments on EU-NIS borders indicate a closer trade integration among the NMS, a declining trade integration among the NIS, as well contradictory shifts in NMS-NIS exports and imports. The importance of the NIS as export markets for the NMS is growing, in particular for the NIS neighbours. The bulk of EU exports is made up of manufacturing products. By contrast, EU imports from the NMS and NIS display a much more diversified pattern. The key NMS manufacturing export commodities to the NIS are chemicals, machinery & equipment, motor vehicles and food products, whereas NMS manufacturing imports from the NIS are dominated by basic metals, refined petroleum, chemicals and fabricated metal products, and there is a high concentration on just a few basic manufactures. The NMS increasingly specialize on high-tech and medium-high-tech products. The wide-ranging modernization and industrial restructuring in the NMS has been facilitated by the process of EU integration and by massive inflows of FDI whereas in the NIS the resource specialization generally increased as reforms and restructuring were delayed. It is questionable whether the NIS will be able to revamp their industrial structure without significantly stepping up reform efforts, trade integration and attracting more FDI.