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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_154_Imbruno.pdf

Abstract: This paper highlights the crucial role played by international access to intermediate inputs to explain firm-level performance, via two channels simultaneously: trade and FDI. We develop a simple theoretical model showing that trade integration of input market entails an efficiency improvement within firms able to import (gains from input switching) and an efficiency decline within other firms (losses from domestic input availability). At the same time, FDI integration of input market implies non-importers’ efficiency enhancement (gains from input switching) and some ambiguous effects on importers’ efficiency (due to additional losses from foreign input availability). Using firm-level data from the Chinese manufacturing sector over the period 2002-2006, we find some results coherent with our theoretical predictions.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_155_Gazaniol_Laffineur.pdf

Abstract: This paper investigates to which extent outward foreign direct investment (FDI) affects domestic wages. We are first interested in the raw wage differential between multinational and domestic firms. Results reveal that multinational companies pay a wage premium to their employees, even within precise skill-groups (blue-collar workers, intermediate occupations and managers). The wage premium is increasing within the wage distribution. In a second step, we use spell of workers within a firm in a fixed effect model to analyze the effect of outward FDI within job-spells. Results suggest that outward FDI raises wages for managers and reduces wages for workers performing offshorable tasks. The positive effect of FDI on managers’ wages is mainly driven by the intensive margin of outward FDI, that is by large firms already established abroad. This result is observed even after controlling for endogenous workers’ mobility.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_152_FoellmiHanslinKohler.pdf

Abstract: This paper presents a dynamic North-South general-equilibrium model where households have non-homothetic preferences. Innovation takes place in a rich North while norms in a poor South imitate products manufactured in North. Introducing non-homothetic preferences delivers a complete international product cycle as described by Vernon (1966), where the different stages of the product cycle are not only determined by supply side factors but also by the distribution of income between North and South. We ask how changes in Southern labor productivity, South's population size and inequality across regions affects the international product cycle. In line with presented stylized facts about the product cycle we predict a negative correlation between adoption time and per capita incomes.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_148_PrettnerStrulik.pdf

Abstract: We investigate the effects of human capital accumulation on trade and productivity by integrating a micro-founded education and fertility decision of households into a model of international trade with firm heterogeneity. Our theoretical framework leads to two testable implications: i) the export share of a country increases with the education level of its population, ii) the average profitability of firms located in a country also increases with the education level of its population. We find that these implications are supported by empirical evidence for a panel of OECD countries from 1960 to 2010.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_151_Temesvary.pdf

Abstract: This paper examines how cross-border differences in the stringency of bank regulations affect U.S. banks’ international activities. The analysis relies on a unique bank-level dataset on the globally most active U.S. banks’ balance sheet as well as their cross-border, foreign affiliate lending and foreign market entry choices in 82 foreign countries in the 2003-2013 period. Results show that U.S. banks are significantly more likely to enter foreign markets with relatively laxer bank capital and disclosure requirements, and exit foreign markets with relatively stricter deposit insurance schemes and more restrictions on activities. Banks substitute away from foreign affiliate lending (via subsidiaries in the foreign country) towards cross-border lending (originating from the U.S.) in foreign countries with more powerful and independent bank regulators and limits on activities.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Kurzbericht/19.Kurzbericht_März_2015.pdf

Abstract: FIW publishes quarterly FIW Notes. They present an overview of the most important Austrian and international developments regarding international economics. There is only a German version available.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_147_BournakisChristopoulosMallick.pdf

Abstract: Given the decline in growth momentum in the manufacturing sector in many OECD countries, the role of knowledge-based capital has emerged as a key driver for sustained growth. While empirical studies on estimating knowledge spillovers have usually been undertaken at the country level, the spillover effects can be more definitive only if the analysis is conducted at the industry-level. This paper therefore attempts to identify spillovers by disentangling technological innovations into intra- and inter-national knowledge innovations at industry level in driving per capita output growth. Our main findings are first, that there is evidence for a robust positive relationship between R&D, human capital and output growth across these countries at industry-level. Second, the potential of international spillover gains is greater in countries with higher human capital and in industries whose pattern of production is more R&D oriented, import intensive, and dependent on vertical FDI. Finally, significant heterogeneity is found between high and low-tech industries with high-tech group displaying greater knowledge spillovers, suggesting that low-tech industries need to be more innovative in order to absorb the technological advancements of domestic and international rivals.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Policy_Briefs/26_FIW_PolicyBrief_Stoellinger.pdf

Abstract: Dieser Beitrag beschäftigt sich mit dem Wachstum der österreichischen Industrieexporte zwischen 2010 und 2013, also den Jahren nach dem Einbruch des Welthandels. Im Vordergrund steht dabei die Frage, ob die österreichischen Exporte durch Intensivierung der bestehenden Exportbeziehungen anstiegen (intensiver Rand) oder ob das Exportwachstum durch den Aufbau neuer Exportbeziehungen (extensiver Rand) zustande kam. Dabei zeigt sich eine Dominanz des intensiven Rands, der im Übrigen auch vorrangig für die – im Vergleich zur Exportentwicklung vor der Krise – reduzierte Wachstumsdynamik 2010-2013 verantwortlich zeichnet. Diese Unterscheidung ist insofern wichtig, als Veränderungen der Exporte durch den intensiven Rand eine vertiefte Spezialisierung bedeuten, während eine Ausweitung des extensiven Randes auf eine Exportdiversifikation hinweist. Die Analyse der Exporte der österreichischen Sachgütererzeugung wird durch industriespezifische Ergebnisse und einen Vergleich mit anderen EU-Staaten ergänzt. Für die Wirtschaftspolitik ist von Bedeutung, ob eine etwaige Exportförderung auf die Forcierung des intensiven oder des extensiven Randes des Exports ausgerichtet sein sollte.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_153_Bignon_Breton_RojasBreu.pdf

Abstract: This paper shows that currency arrangements impact on credit available through default incentives. To this end we build a symmetric two-country model with money and imperfect credit market integration. With the Euro Area context in mind, we capture differences in credit market integration by variations in the cost for banks to grant credit for cross-border purchases. We show that for a high enough level of this cost, currency integration may magnify default incentives, leading to more stringent credit rationing and lower welfare than in a regime of two currencies. The integration of credit markets restores the optimality of the currency union.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_149_MakarovSokolova.pdf

Abstract: According to current international climate change regime countries are responsible for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, which result from economic activities within national borders, including emissions from producing goods for exports. At the same time imports of carbon intensive goods are not regulated by international agreements. In this paper emissions embodied in exports and imports of Russia were calculated with the use of inter-country input-output tables. It was revealed that Russia is the second largest exporter of emissions embodied in trade and the large portion of these emissions is directed to developed countries. The reasons for high carbon intensity of Russia’s exports are obsolete technologies (in comparison to developed economies) and the structure of commodity exports. Because of large amount of net exports of carbon intensive goods the current approach to emissions accounting does not suit interests of Russia. On the one hand, Russia, as well as other large net emissions exporters, is interested in the revision of allocation of responsibility between producers and consumers of carbon intensive products. On the other hand, current technological backwardness makes Russia vulnerable to the policy of “carbon protectionism”, which can be implemented by its trade partners.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_150_BernhardtPollak.pdf

Abstract: Recent decades have witnessed an increasing integration of developing countries into global value chains (GVCs). This growing participation in global production sharing has raised hopes for economic upgrading within such value chains. However, globalization has intensified international competition, and achieving economic upgrading is not an easy task. Moreover, the social consequences of participating in GVCs are not always positive; however, they have received considerably less attention in the literature. This paper suggests a simple and parsimonious approach to measuring economic and social upgrading (and downgrading) in GVCs. Applying this parsimonious methodology and using quantitative secondary data, we analyze how widespread upgrading has been in four selected manufacturing GVCs: apparel, wood furniture, automotive, and mobile phones. We also investigate to what extent downgrading is part of the reality and undertake a comparative analysis across GVCs, regions and country groups (developing vs. developed countries). We find that the promise of industrial upgrading through participation in GVCs does not materialize for everyone. Indeed, economic upgrading has taken place in just over a quarter of the countries in our sample, among them mainly developing countries. Finally, we examine the relationship between economic performance and social performance in the different GVCs to investigate whether or not economic upgrading is typically associated with social upgrading. While patterns differ across GVCs, we find that economic upgrading is more likely to occur simultaneously with social upgrading than without, and vice versa. Our analysis, thus, suggests that economic upgrading is conducive to, but not sufficient for, social upgrading to occur.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2014/Studien_2014_adapted_file_names_stoellinger/02_Stoellinger_Kurzfassung_The_Central_European_Manufacturing_Core_What_is_Driving_Regional_Production_Sharing.pdf

Abstract: There is evidence that Europe’s manufacturing activity is increasingly concentrated in a Central European (CE) core which the IMF in a recent publication also refers to as the German-Central European supply chain. This CE manufacturing core is dominated by Germany and in addition comprises Austria and the four Visegrád countries (the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary and Poland). The case of Austria is particularly interesting because it is neither the primary technology leader within the country group, nor is it an offshoring destination and therefore takes an intermediate position. This study provides further empirical evidence for the growing concentration of European industrial production in the CE manufacturing core and explores in detail the structure and development of the regional supply chains over the period 1995-2011. This includes an analysis of the impact of international production integration on the value added share of manufacturing in the economy. The econometric results point towards differentiated effects for the members of the CE manufacturing core and the remaining EU Member States. Focusing on value added generated by the manufacturing sector, the industries which build the backbone of this regional manufacturing cluster are identified. Finally, the report investigates which factors are conducive to the intensification of international production sharing. In line with the notion of a production-investment-services nexus, it is found that (inward) FDI in the manufacturing sector is associated with higher degrees of production integration. Again, the econometric evidence suggests that some of the factors explaining international production sharing, such as the level of export sophistication, have differentiated effects for the members of the CE manufacturing core as compared to the other EU countries.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2014/Studien_2014_adapted_file_names_stoellinger/02_Stoellinger_Deutsche Policy Note_The_Central_European_Manufacturing_Core_What_is_Driving_Regional_Production_Sharing.pdf

Abstract: There is evidence that Europe’s manufacturing activity is increasingly concentrated in a Central European (CE) core which the IMF in a recent publication also refers to as the German-Central European supply chain. This CE manufacturing core is dominated by Germany and in addition comprises Austria and the four Visegrád countries (the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary and Poland). The case of Austria is particularly interesting because it is neither the primary technology leader within the country group, nor is it an offshoring destination and therefore takes an intermediate position. This study provides further empirical evidence for the growing concentration of European industrial production in the CE manufacturing core and explores in detail the structure and development of the regional supply chains over the period 1995-2011. This includes an analysis of the impact of international production integration on the value added share of manufacturing in the economy. The econometric results point towards differentiated effects for the members of the CE manufacturing core and the remaining EU Member States. Focusing on value added generated by the manufacturing sector, the industries which build the backbone of this regional manufacturing cluster are identified. Finally, the report investigates which factors are conducive to the intensification of international production sharing. In line with the notion of a production-investment-services nexus, it is found that (inward) FDI in the manufacturing sector is associated with higher degrees of production integration. Again, the econometric evidence suggests that some of the factors explaining international production sharing, such as the level of export sophistication, have differentiated effects for the members of the CE manufacturing core as compared to the other EU countries.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_144_DonaubauerMeyerNunnekamp.pdf

Abstract: e raise the hypothesis that aid specifically targeted at economic infrastructure helps developing countries attract higher FDI inflows through improving their endowment with infrastructure in transportation, communication, energy and finance. By performing 3SLS estimations we explicitly account for dependencies between three structural equations on the allocation of sector-specific aid, the determinants of infrastructure, and the determinants of FDI. We find fairly strong and robust evidence that targeted aid promotes FDI indirectly through the infrastructure channel. In addition, aid in infrastructure appears to have surprisingly strong direct effects on FDI.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_142_Bruhn.pdf

Abstract: Against the background of a changing landscape of trade and investment governance in the 21st century, characterised by the proliferation of deep preferential trade agreements (PTAs), this paper econometrically tests the importance of global value chain trade and regulatory differences in explaining the likelihood of a country pair to include an (enforceable) investment provision in the PTA. The spatial probit analysis, based on Bayesian Monte Carlo Markov Chain simulation, reveals that higher production network trade and strongly differing legal frameworks are indeed associated with a higher likelihood of including (enforceable) investment provisions. This is true even when controlling for interdependence between countries and conducting a variety of sensitivity checks, underscoring the importance of deep integration in the context of global value chains. However, when excluding EU countries from the sample, investment coverage and enforceability is rather driven by positive spatial interdependence between countries, raising the question whether the focus on global value chain trade and regulatory differences is something characteristic of EU trade policy making.

Weblink:	fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2014/Studien_2014_adapted_file_names_stoellinger/02_Stoellinger_Deutsche%20Policy%20Note_The_Central_European_Manufacturing_Core_What_is_Driving_Regional_Production_Sharing.pdf _blank
File:	fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_2014/Studien_2014_adapted_file_names_stoellinger/02_Stoellinger_FIW_Research_Report_The_Central_European_Manufacturing_Core_What_is_Driving_Regional_Production_Sharing.pdf

Abstract: There is evidence that Europe’s manufacturing activity is increasingly concentrated in a Central European (CE) core which the IMF in a recent publication also refers to as the German-Central European supply chain. This CE manufacturing core is dominated by Germany and in addition comprises Austria and the four Visegrád countries (the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary and Poland). The case of Austria is particularly interesting because it is neither the primary technology leader within the country group, nor is it an offshoring destination and therefore takes an intermediate position. This study provides further empirical evidence for the growing concentration of European industrial production in the CE manufacturing core and explores in detail the structure and development of the regional supply chains over the period 1995-2011. This includes an analysis of the impact of international production integration on the value added share of manufacturing in the economy. The econometric results point towards differentiated effects for the members of the CE manufacturing core and the remaining EU Member States. Focusing on value added generated by the manufacturing sector, the industries which build the backbone of this regional manufacturing cluster are identified. Finally, the report investigates which factors are conducive to the intensification of international production sharing. In line with the notion of a production-investment-services nexus, it is found that (inward) FDI in the manufacturing sector is associated with higher degrees of production integration. Again, the econometric evidence suggests that some of the factors explaining international production sharing, such as the level of export sophistication, have differentiated effects for the members of the CE manufacturing core as compared to the other EU countries.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_145_Zenasni.pdf

Abstract: Increased globalization over the last two decades has led to strong growth in international business activity and international financial integration. This phenomenon covers a wide array of economic activities, including regional and international integration, investment and trade, international financial shocks and disturbances. This paper takes stock of current trends in regional financial integration and trade liberalization processes for the case of Maghreb countries. It aims also to examine the effects of these recent trends on economic growth in an era of growing globalization and frequent financial shocks. Using Multivariate Threshold Vector Autoregressive (MVTAR) estimation with data from 1990 to 2012, this study argues that the greater and deeper regional financial integration and trade will have positive repercussions for each Maghreb country. In addition, estimation results show that the regional financial integration process plays a positive role in enlarging the borders of countries as well as the market size of each country and, consequently, in stimulating economic growth. Finally, we can assert that the study argues that political and structural impediments continue to hamper regional integration.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_143_Everett.pdf

Abstract: Using novel data on individual euro area banks' balance sheets this paper shows that exposure to stressed European sovereigns manifested in a liquidity shock to their international funding through two channels: (i) a contraction in cross-border funding, and (ii) a contraction in US wholesale funding. The effectiveness of the ECB's unconventional monetary policy measures, in the form of the 3-year Long-Term Refinancing Operations (VLTROs), in mitigating effects of the European sovereign debt crisis on the supply of private sector credit is assessed. Controlling for banks' risk factors and credit demand, the first round of VLTROs in December 2011 is not found to have been successful in offsetting the decline in credit supply to Households and non-financial corporates. In contrast, the VLTROs in February 2012 are found to have mitigated the effect of the European sovereign debt crisis on credit supply. Moreover, a contraction in credit supply to non-financial corporates, but not households, is documented for euro area banks affected by the international liquidity shock and that drew on ECB liquidity under the VLTRO facilities.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_146_Kolev.pdf

Abstract: The paper analyzes the sources of exchange rate movements in emerging economies in the context of monetary tapering by the Federal Reserve. A structural vector autoregression framework with a long-run restriction is used to decompose the movements of nominal ex-change rates into two components: one component driven solely by the adjustment of the real exchange rate to permanent shocks and one resulting from transitory shocks such as monetary policy measures. Imposing the restriction that temporary shocks should not affect the real exchange rate in the long run, the analysis shows that the recent depreciation of the Russian ruble and the Turkish lira is largely driven by transitory shocks, like for instance monetary policy measures. Furthermore, the response of the lira to transitory shocks is sluggish and further depreciation is possible in the next months. In Brazil and India, on the contrary, nominal exchange rate behavior is mainly driven by permanent shocks. The recent depreciation is not caused by short-lived shocks but rather by changing long-term macroeconomic fundamentals. The foreign exchange interventions of the central bank to avoid large depreciation are therefore largely misplaced, especially in Brazil. They aggravate the use of nominal exchange rate flexibility as an efficient adjustment mechanism for real exchange rate changes, i.e. changes in relative prices across borders, and efficient allocation of resources.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_141_Mallick.pdf

Abstract: Globalisation, has intensified the demand preference for quality labour, that embodies more knowledge and competency/skill to maximise the production in one hand, and it has also changed the life style and consumption behavior of the society on the other. As a consequence, this has led to significant changes in the composition and structure of the economy, and also, the reallocation of labour. The study examines the reallocation effect (or structural change) and the direct effect of globalization on labour productivity growth in BRICS countries. The study also examines the relative role of consumption factors and other factors for the structural development during globalization. The study uses shift–share analysis, dynamic panel data method and input-output tables for the empirical analysis during 1990-91 to 2011-12. The findings show that the contribution of structural change is relatively significant in China and India. The globalization measures including international trade and FDI are found to have significant impact on the upsurge of labour productivity growth in BRICS, where the consumption demand predominates among the factors of structural development.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_140_BeckmannBelkeDreger.pdf

Abstract: Deviations of policy interest rates from the levels implied by the Taylor rule have been persistent before the financial crisis and increased especially after the turn of the century. Compared to the Taylor benchmark, policy rates were often too low. This paper provides evidence that both international spillovers, among them dependencies in the interest rate setting of central banks, and nonlinear reaction patterns can offer a more realistic specification of the Taylor rule of four major central banks.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_133_KadochnikovFedyunina.pdf

Abstract: In this paper, we investigate the relationship between export performance and economic growth in Russian regions. We propose a methodology for decomposition of export growth into intensive and extensive margins and distinguish between product- and geographic extensive components within extensive margin. An empirical analysis suggests that higher growth rates in Russian regions are associated with higher intensive margin. We reveal significant differences in export survival of differentiated and homogeneous flows and find evidence of strong effects of distance and institutions on export survival. We argue that Russian regions would experience higher economic growth if they were able to improve their export performance at the intensive margin by providing lower transport costs to the business and by enhancing higher quality of institutions.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_137_BeverelliNeumuellerTeh.pdf

Abstract: We estimate the effects of trade facilitation on export diversification, as measured by two extensive margins: the number of products exported by destination and the number of export destinations served by product. To address the issue of causality, we employ an identification strategy whereby only exports of new products, or exports to new destinations, are taken inton account when computing the respective margins of trade. We find a positive impact of trade facilitation on the extensive margins of trade. The results are robust to alternative definitions of extensive margins, different sets of controls and various estimation methods. Simulation results suggest substantial extensive margin gains from trade facilitation reform in Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_134_Tarun.pdf

Abstract: The Paper assesses the export competitiveness of top fifteen textile products (different for each export destination) at 6 digit level of HS classification exported by India to top seven textile export destinations by using both price and income export elasticities. The export elasticities are estimated using dynamic panel data approach for each country separately. Commodity specific elasticities are further estimated to forecast the exports of commodities exported to respective export destinations. The resulting estimates can be used in designing destination specific export promotion policies for India.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_135_LechthalerMileva.pdf

Abstract: We develop a dynamic general equilibrium trade model with comparative advantage, heterogeneous firms, heterogeneous workers and endogenous firm entry to study wage inequality during the adjustment after trade liberalization. We find that trade liberalization increases wage inequality both in the short run and in the long run. In the short run, inter-sectoral wage inequality is high but then recedes. The skill premium does not change much in the short run but increases substantially in the medium and long run. Incorporating worker training in the model considerably reduces the effects of trade liberalization on wage inequality. The effects on wage inequality are much more adverse when trade liberalization is unilateral instead of bilateral or restricted to specific sectors instead of including all sectors.