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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_II/SI05.Policy_Note.Carbon_Content.pdf

Abstract: In this study CO2 emissions embodied in Austrian international trade are quantified employing a 66-region input output model of multidirectional trade. We find that Austria’s final demand CO2 responsibilities on a global scale are 38% higher than conventional statistics report (110 Mt-CO2 versus 79 Mt-CO2 in 2004). For each unit of Austrian final demand, currently two thirds of the thus triggered CO2 emissions occur outside Austrian borders. We then develop a 19-region computable general equilibrium model of Austria and its major trading partners and world regions to find that future Austrian climate policy can achieve the EU 20-20 emission reduction targets, but that its carbon trade balance would worsen considerably. Both unilateral EU and internationally coordinated climate policies affect Austrian international trade stronger than its domestic production.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_II/SI05.Executive_Summary.Carbon_Content.pdf

Abstract: In this study CO2 emissions embodied in Austrian international trade are quantified employing a 66-region input output model of multidirectional trade. We find that Austria’s final demand CO2 responsibilities on a global scale are 38% higher than conventional statistics report (110 Mt-CO2 versus 79 Mt-CO2 in 2004). For each unit of Austrian final demand, currently two thirds of the thus triggered CO2 emissions occur outside Austrian borders. We then develop a 19-region computable general equilibrium model of Austria and its major trading partners and world regions to find that future Austrian climate policy can achieve the EU 20-20 emission reduction targets, but that its carbon trade balance would worsen considerably. Both unilateral EU and internationally coordinated climate policies affect Austrian international trade stronger than its domestic production.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_043-Stojanovska_Cuyvers.pdf

Abstract: We estimate the impact of international trade and of trade-induced technological change on the wage inequality in the OECD countries, by estimating a two-stage mandated-wage regression. From our estimation we find no evidence on the Stolper-Samuelson effect of trade with the developing and newly industrialized countries. On the other hand, the evidenced technological change from technological competition did not have a strong effect on the increase of the wage differential between the different types of labour in the analyzed sample of OECD countries, which would have indicated that the bias of the technological change towards the skilled-intensive sectors is determined by trade in innovation-intensive goods.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_041-portes.pdf

Abstract: This paper assesses the role of financial frictions and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on an economy´s growth rate, business cycle volatility, and firm´s capital structure. We gauge these effects within the Financial Accelerator framework, where entrepreneurs can establish affiliates of local firms abroad through Foreign Direct Investment. Model simulations suggest that in the presence of credit market imperfections FDI is associated with faster growth, less leverage, and lower aggregate volatility. These features are consistent with the macroeconomic dynamics of the more globally integrated economies over the last three decades.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_042-Sedghi-Khorasgani.pdf

Abstract: This paper investigates the effect of financial instability on the design of monetary policy rule for a small open economy. We find evidence that optimal monetary policy rule reacts directly to financial imbalances and, as a result, to the real exchange rate movements. However, optimal rule would not react to the real exchange rate changes directly if central bank does not care about the financial instability. For a quantitative analysis, impulse responses of some macroeconomic variables and financial instability to the domestic productivity and foreign country output shocks, resulting from simulation, are also analysed in this paper.

Abstract: This study quantifies the CO2 emissions embodied in Austrian exports and imports, using a two region-input output approach (Austria and the rest of the world). The approach considers differences in production technologies between Austria and the rest of the world, concerning the CO2 coefficients (per unit of output) and the input-output structure (both are taken from data for EU 27). The CO2 emissions embodied in Austrian imports are considerably higher than CO2 emissions embodied in exports, i.e., CO2 for Austrian demand is leaking to the rest of the world. From 1995 to 2005 this negative balance of CO2 in trade has diminished in absolute terms, from 11 million tons (1995) to 6.4 million tons (2005), as CO2 embodied in exports has grown more rapidly than CO2 embodied in imports, thereby creating a huge potential for future carbon leakage.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_II/SI02.PolicyNote.CO2_Emissions_Embodied_in_Austrian_International_Trade.pdf

Abstract: This study quantifies the CO2 emissions embodied in Austrian exports and imports, using a two region-input output approach (Austria and the rest of the world). The approach considers differences in production technologies between Austria and the rest of the world, concerning the CO2 coefficients (per unit of output) and the input-output structure (both are taken from data for EU 27). The CO2 emissions embodied in Austrian imports are considerably higher than CO2 emissions embodied in exports, i.e., CO2 for Austrian demand is leaking to the rest of the world. From 1995 to 2005 this negative balance of CO2 in trade has diminished in absolute terms, from 11 million tons (1995) to 6.4 million tons (2005), as CO2 embodied in exports has grown more rapidly than CO2 embodied in imports, thereby creating a huge potential for future carbon leakage.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_II/SI02.ExecutiveSummary.CO2_Emissions_Embodied_in_Austrian_International_Trade.pdf

Abstract: This study quantifies the CO2 emissions embodied in Austrian exports and imports, using a two region-input output approach (Austria and the rest of the world). The approach considers differences in production technologies between Austria and the rest of the world, concerning the CO2 coefficients (per unit of output) and the input-output structure (both are taken from data for EU 27). The CO2 emissions embodied in Austrian imports are considerably higher than CO2 emissions embodied in exports, i.e., CO2 for Austrian demand is leaking to the rest of the world. From 1995 to 2005 this negative balance of CO2 in trade has diminished in absolute terms, from 11 million tons (1995) to 6.4 million tons (2005), as CO2 embodied in exports has grown more rapidly than CO2 embodied in imports, thereby creating a huge potential for future carbon leakage.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_II/SI03.Policy_Note.China__s_oil.pdf

Abstract: China is a rising global power with a growing role and impact on the world’s energy markets as well as on the Earth’s climate system. China pursues its development in an essentially non-confrontational manner, a vision encapsulated by the notion of peaceful rise which is viewed positively in the world’s major capitals. Nevertheless, China’s rapid growth represents a genuine global challenge and raises many questions. How is China dealing with its growing need for imported crude oil? What is the impact of China’s rise on the global oil market, notably in terms of oil price developments? Are Chinese actions on oil markets different from those of other major importers? What opportunities and risks arise as a result of china’s growing role on the global oil market from the viewpoint of other global players? In this report we seek to offer some answers to those questions with a review of China’s developing energy policy, of the actions and revealed preferences of its national oil companies, and of broader economic and geopolitical analyses of the impact of China’s growing oil consumption on other global players.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_II/SI03.Executive_Summary.China__s_oil.pdf

Abstract: China is a rising global power with a growing role and impact on the world’s energy markets as well as on the Earth’s climate system. China pursues its development in an essentially non-confrontational manner, a vision encapsulated by the notion of peaceful rise which is viewed positively in the world’s major capitals. Nevertheless, China’s rapid growth represents a genuine global challenge and raises many questions. How is China dealing with its growing need for imported crude oil? What is the impact of China’s rise on the global oil market, notably in terms of oil price developments? Are Chinese actions on oil markets different from those of other major importers? What opportunities and risks arise as a result of china’s growing role on the global oil market from the viewpoint of other global players? In this report we seek to offer some answers to those questions with a review of China’s developing energy policy, of the actions and revealed preferences of its national oil companies, and of broader economic and geopolitical analyses of the impact of China’s growing oil consumption on other global players.

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File:	fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_II/SI03.Studie.China__s_oil.pdf

Abstract: China is a rising global power with a growing role and impact on the world’s energy markets as well as on the Earth’s climate system. China pursues its development in an essentially non-confrontational manner, a vision encapsulated by the notion of peaceful rise which is viewed positively in the world’s major capitals. Nevertheless, China’s rapid growth represents a genuine global challenge and raises many questions. How is China dealing with its growing need for imported crude oil? What is the impact of China’s rise on the global oil market, notably in terms of oil price developments? Are Chinese actions on oil markets different from those of other major importers? What opportunities and risks arise as a result of china’s growing role on the global oil market from the viewpoint of other global players? In this report we seek to offer some answers to those questions with a review of China’s developing energy policy, of the actions and revealed preferences of its national oil companies, and of broader economic and geopolitical analyses of the impact of China’s growing oil consumption on other global players.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_II/SI04.Policy_Note.Austria_2020.pdf

Abstract: This study quantifies possible impacts of medium-term structural changes in the global economy on the Austrian economy. Emphasis is placed on the effects of continued medium term growth in emerging markets, especially in Asia and Latin America, on the structure of the Austrian economy. The issues here include the identification of price effects (due to increased demand for raw materials) that can be expected, as well as how these may impact the commodity composition of both exports and imports. Underlying global trends also involve both investment patterns and total factor productivity trends at a more regional level, also impacting on the Austrian economy. Finally, these structural changes at the global level also lead to changes in household incomes and the cost of living in Austria, impacting on patterns of inequality in Austria at the household level.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_II/SI04.Executive_Summary.Austria_2020.pdf

Abstract: This study quantifies possible impacts of medium-term structural changes in the global economy on the Austrian economy. Emphasis is placed on the effects of continued medium term growth in emerging markets, especially in Asia and Latin America, on the structure of the Austrian economy. The issues here include the identification of price effects (due to increased demand for raw materials) that can be expected, as well as how these may impact the commodity composition of both exports and imports. Underlying global trends also involve both investment patterns and total factor productivity trends at a more regional level, also impacting on the Austrian economy. Finally, these structural changes at the global level also lead to changes in household incomes and the cost of living in Austria, impacting on patterns of inequality in Austria at the household level.

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File:	fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_II/Studien_2009_adapted_file_names/SI04.ResearchReport.Austria2020.pdf

Abstract: This study quantifies possible impacts of medium-term structural changes in the global economy on the Austrian economy. Emphasis is placed on the effects of continued medium term growth in emerging markets, especially in Asia and Latin America, on the structure of the Austrian economy. The issues here include the identification of price effects (due to increased demand for raw materials) that can be expected, as well as how these may impact the commodity composition of both exports and imports. Underlying global trends also involve both investment patterns and total factor productivity trends at a more regional level, also impacting on the Austrian economy. Finally, these structural changes at the global level also lead to changes in household incomes and the cost of living in Austria, impacting on patterns of inequality in Austria at the household level.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_045-DhinThiThanhBinh.pdf

Abstract: This paper studies the effects of agglomeration economies on the location choices by foreign firms in Vietnam. By using a large dataset that provides detailed information about individual firms, the study examines the location choices by 568 newly created foreign firms in 2005 in about 150 different 4-digit industries. This is one of the few studies of agglomeration effects on the location choices by foreign investments in transition economies in general and in Vietnam in particular. The estimates of the negative binomial regression model and the conditional logit model show that agglomeration benefits motivate foreign firms in the same industries and from the same countries of origin to locate near each other. However, the empirical results also indicate that there is competition among provinces in Vietnam in attracting foreign investors, and the locations of Vietnamese firms have no effects on the location decisions by foreign firms in the same industry.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_044-DiFilippo.pdf

Abstract: The present paper provides a new explanation for the dynamics of exchange rates based on conventions that prevail among market participants. The model relies on a two states Markov switching framework: a bull state and a bear state. In the bull state, agents are optimistic and put more weight on positive news about the domestic economy inducing an appreciation of the domestic currency. In the bear state, agents are pessimistic and overweight negative news associated to the domestic economy leading to a depreciation of the domestic currency. Results show that market switches between a bull state and a bear state explain the dynamics of the euro/dollar exchange rate between January 1995 and December 2008. Besides, the model highlights the life-cycle of conventions in the foreign exchange market and provides lessons for public authorities to reduce exchange rate volatility. Eventually, the model offers a solution to the exchange rate disconnection puzzle.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_039-frensch.pdf

Abstract: Trade policy has well documented effects on trade volumes. Reaching beyond volumes, I explore the impact of European emerging economies’ recent institutional trade liberalisation on extensive (i.e., the set of imported goods) versus intensive import margins (volumes per imported good) with highly disaggregated data. Differentiating goods categories by use, I find robust evidence of stronger extensive import margin effects of liberalisation for intermediate and capital goods compared to consumer goods. This identifies an important channel for the link between reforms and growth in transition. The results also support new models of heterogeneous firms and trade, which predict that extensive import margin effects of a country’s institutional trade liberalisation should – via lowering fixed costs for rest of the world exporters – increase with decreasing substitutability among products.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Policy_Briefs/02.FIW_PolicyBrief_Neue Schatten des Protektionismus_deutsch.pdf

Abstract: Wie in vergangenen Rezessionen verursachte auch die Wirtschaftskrise 2008-2009 Spannungen im internationalen Handelssystem. Allerdings spielen diesmal Importzölle, das klassische Instrument, um eigene Industries vor ausländischer Konkurrenz zu schützen, keine bedeutende Rolle, vor allem nicht in den Industriestaaten. Die WTO-Bestimmungen haben sich diesbezüglich als effizienter Schutz gegen ein Abgleiten in eine protektionistische Handelspolitik erwiesen. In anderen Politikbereichen hingegen, etwa bei Beihilfen und WTO-Schutzmaßnahmen, fällt die Bilanz gemischt aus. Obwohl von keinem ausufernden Subventionswettlauf die Rede sein kann, sind massive staatliche Interventionen in der Automobilindustrie zu verzeichnen. Diese kamen vorwiegend führenden multinationalen Unternehmen zugute, die ihre internationale Präsenz und Mobilität dazu nutzen, bei verschiedenen nationalen Regierungen öffentliche Unterstützungen für sich herauszuschlagen. Weder nationalen Regierungen noch der WTO ist es gelungen, kostspielige Subventionen zu verhindern. Tatsächlich dürften sich Regierungen in einem internationalen Subventionswettbewerb befinden, der von globalen Autoproduzenten initiiert wurde. Dies führte auch dazu, dass sich die Automobilindustrie über die existierenden internationalen Beihilfebestimmungen hinwegsetzen konnte. Dies stellt keinen klassischen Protektionismus zugunsten nationaler Unternehmen dar, sondern eine neue Abwandlung bei der international agierende Firmen lokale Unterstützung für ihre globalen Operationen suchen und dabei Regierungen gegeneinander ausspielen und in einen Subventionswettlauf verstricken.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Policy_Briefs/03.FIW_PolicyBrief_3_Globale_Krise_und_Herausforderung_für_Oesterreich.pdf

Abstract: Die Weltwirtschaft ist 2009 zum ersten Mal seit Mitte des vorigen Jahrhunderts nicht gewachsen. Die Wirtschaftsleistung dürfte um 2% zurückgegangen sein, in den Industrieländern um 3,5%. Dies war die Folge der Finanzkrise, sie hat zu einem Einbruch des Welthandels mit Folgen auf alle realwirtschaftlichen Aktivitäten geführt. Wir beschreiben die starken Veränderungen in den Rahmenbedingungen, wie sie schon vor der Krise weltweit und für Österreich im Besonderen eingetreten sind. Dann geben wir einen Überblick über Verlauf und Ursachen der Finanzkrise, die Reaktion der Wirtschaftspolitik und die zusätzlichen Herausforderungen durch die Krise.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_040-campolmi_fadinger_forlati.pdf

Abstract: We study trade policy in a two-sector Krugman type model of trade. We conduct a general analysis allowing for three different instruments: tariffs, export taxes and production subsidies. For each instrument we consider unilateral trade policy without retaliation. When carefully disentangling the different effects that determine policy makers' choices and modeling general equilibrium effects of taxes/tariffs, we find that production subsidies are always inefficiently low and driven by terms of trade effects. In the cases of tariffs and export taxes the home market effect prevails for some parameter combinations but mostly trade policy is determined by terms of trade effects and the desire to reduce distortions arising from monopolistic competition. Hence, our analysis sheds new light on trade policy in a model of intra-industry trade.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_038-seymen.pdf

Abstract: The study investigates the business cycle dynamics in the euro area using an empirical framework which comprises common global and euro area shocks as well as allows bilateral spillovers of country-specific shocks across the member economies. Three core questions lie at the heart of the analysis: (i) To what extent are the business cycles of the euro area countries driven by common and spillover shocks? (ii) What are the extent and sources of business cycle heterogeneity in the euro area? (iii) Which mechanisms led to the moderation of business cycle activity in the euroarea until recently?

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_037-pasricha.pdf

Abstract: n the debate on the benefits of international financial integration, recent literature has emphasized the development of domestic markets as a precondition. This paper offers an alternative view. Lack of competition in domestic financial systems may prevent countries from reaping the benefits of international integration simply because it prevents them from being integrated in a meaningful way - that of price equalization. A new index of de-facto financial integration is used to explore this question and confirms a strong link. The level of de-jure controls, volatility and institutions matter for price integration but their importance differs between developed and developing countries.

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fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_035-FERRAGINA_PITTIGLIO_REGANATI.pdf

Abstract: The aim of the analysis is to investigate the impact of inward FDI on Italian manufacturing and services firm survival. The paper is organized in two steps. First, we carry out theoretically and empirically the analysis of firm survival distinguishing between foreign multinationals, domestic multinationals and domestic non multinational firms. The empirical analysis is based on survival functions as well as a Cox proportional hazard model, controlling for firm and industry specific covariates. Second, we examine the effect of foreign presence on the survival of host country firms distinguishing between the impact on Italian-owned (indigenous) multinational and non multinational firms and on other foreign-owned firms (i.e., other MNEs) located in the host country. The finding reveals that during the period 2005-2007 while manufacturing and service firms owned by foreign MNEs are more likely to exit the market than national firms, on the other hand domestic MNEs have a higher chance of survival. These results stand even when other firm and industry specific variables are controlled for. This result support the idea that foreign MNEs are inherently footloose while Italian MNEs are more firmly rooted in the local economy. The estimates also indicate that older, larger and more productive firms have higher survival rates. Finally, firm survival of foreign MNEs and domestic MNEs is unaffected by the increased presence of foreign MNEs. On the other hand, the increased foreign presence has a positive impact on Italian non-MNEs’ survival only in the service sector.

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Abstract: Needless to say, it is necessary to study the relative scales of the trade creation effect and the trade diversion effect to evaluate success of ASEAN trade integration and to determine whether or not the intra-bloc trade share is appropriate as an indicator of the progress of reducing intra-regional disparities in ASEAN. Therefore, this paper first uses descriptive statistics and some key indicators to track the progress in economic growth and in trade integration that is the main pillar of building ASEAN Economic Community. Second, we make an attempt to provide answers to the question of whether trade integration matters for reducing intra-regional disparities among ASEAN member states over the period 1995-2007. We perform the panel co-integration method developed by Pedroni (1999) that allows for heterogeneity across ten ASEAN countries. Our major finding shows that trade integration, which is captured by intra-regional exports and imports flows, is appropriate as an indicator of progress of reducing income disparities in the ASEAN zone. Finally, applying the General Method of Moments (GMM) estimation, we also find that deepening of intra-regional trade integration creates more trade flows among ASEAN member states without diverting trade flows with non-members.

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File:	fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Studien_II/SI01.ResearchReport.Characteristics_of_exporting_and_non-exporting_firms_in_Austria.pdf

Abstract: In this study we provide detailed evidence on the importance and performance of exporters compared to non-exporters in Austrian manufacturing, based on firm level data. The results are in line with those found in other studies pointing towards the exceptional role of exporting firms with respect to various size and performance measures. We provide both descriptive as well as econometric evidence on these ‘export premia’ along these lines and further present a brief comparison with results found for other countries. Our findings however also suggest the existence of quite large differences across industries with respect to the export premia which deserves further attention.