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The FIW - Research Centre International Economics (https://www.fiw.ac.at/) is a cooperation between the Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU), the University Vienna, the Johannes Kepler University Linz, the University of Innsbruck, WIFO, wiiw and WSR. FIW is supported by the Austrian Federal Ministries of Education, Research and Science (BMBFW) and of Labour and Economy (BMAW).

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FIW Press Releases 2020

COVID-19: FIW publishes new study on the development of Austrian foreign trade

Foreign Trade Analysis: Free Trade as Growth Driver, Global Development with Changes - Positive Future Trend for Austria's Exports

Vienna (OTS) - This year, for the first time, the Competence Center Research Focus International Economics (FIW) prepared an annual report on Austria's foreign trade. It examined Austria's situation, its potentials and the challenges for Austrian companies in the international environment as well as the consequences of increasing trade barriers since 2018. In addition to analyzing and presenting the current situation, the report also includes a forecast of future developments.

The forecast 2020 to 2024 amounts to an average annual export growth of four percent for Austria. Starting from 2018, Austrian exports can grow by up to 13 percent by 2024. Domestic growth rates lag behind global export dynamics. However, Austria can maintain or slightly increase its share of EU exports. BREXIT increases the share from 2.8 (2019) to 3.0 percent by 2024. The export share with medium-high technology content in total Austrian goods exports (2018: 42 percent), is expected to increase to 51 percent by 2024. Germany, the USA and Italy remain the most important export partners. China and the Central and Eastern European EU member states are gaining in importance.


Free trade as a growth driver for exports New EU trade agreements will have a positive impact on Austrian exports in the medium term. Studies show that Austria benefits from such agreements. The climate debate opens up new market opportunities for domestic companies. Therefore, a strengthening in the area of climate-friendly technologies and production processes is necessary to maintain competitiveness. Possible effects of the COVID-19 epidemic are not taken into account in the forecast, as no reliable data are yet available. An estimate by the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) would dampen Austrian GDP growth by 0.01-0.02 percentage points. This figure doubles if service exports and indirect exports to China are taken into account. If the growth slowdown in China were to be much more severe or prolonged and lead to a global downturn, the decline in growth in Austria could account for up to 0.06 percentage points of GDP growth.


Global development of foreign trade Trade conflicts and additional trade barriers are dampening global foreign trade. Whether these conflicts will continue to escalate, shift or diminish is difficult to predict at present. After the dynamic development in previous years, FIW experts expect weaker global export growth in the future. The key drivers that spurred trade growth in the first two decades of the 21st century are fading or have even reversed. Exports are expected to grow at an average annual rate of 4.5 percent from 2020 to 2024. With this growth trend, the value of global exports, starting in 2018, will increase by about a quarter to 21,741 billion euros by 2024. Excluding the expected deterioration in the business environment over the forecast period, the model would suggest an average annual growth rate of 5.4 percent. China's share of global goods exports will level off. By 2024, China could reach a global export market share of 20 percent. For the EU - excluding the United Kingdom - FIW experts predict an export share of 15 percent in 2024 and 10 percent for the USA.


About the Competence Center for International Business Research (FIW)

The Competence Center is a cooperation project of the Vienna University of Economics and Business Administration with the Universities of Vienna, Linz, Innsbruck as well as the Austrian Institute of Economic Research, the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies and the Economic and Social Computing Center. It offers a research platform, information on topics relevant to foreign trade, and access to economic databases. FIW is funded by the Federal Ministry of Education, Science and Research (BMBWF) and the Federal Ministry for Digitization and Economic Location (BMDW).

 

BMDW: First Annual Report on Austrian Foreign Trade and Investment

Foreign Trade Analysis: Free Trade as Growth Driver, Global Development with Changes - Positive Future Trend for Austria's Exports

Vienna (OTS) - This year, for the first time, the Competence Center Research Focus International Economics (FIW) prepared an annual report on Austria's foreign trade. It examined Austria's situation, its potentials and the challenges for Austrian companies in the international environment as well as the consequences of increasing trade barriers since 2018. In addition to analyzing and presenting the current situation, the report also includes a forecast of future developments.

The forecast 2020 to 2024 amounts to an average annual export growth of four percent for Austria. Starting from 2018, Austrian exports can grow by up to 13 percent by 2024. Domestic growth rates lag behind global export dynamics. However, Austria can maintain or slightly increase its share of EU exports. BREXIT increases the share from 2.8 (2019) to 3.0 percent by 2024. The export share with medium-high technology content in total Austrian goods exports (2018: 42 percent), is expected to increase to 51 percent by 2024. Germany, the USA and Italy remain the most important export partners. China and the Central and Eastern European EU member states are gaining in importance.
Free trade as a growth driver for exports New EU trade agreements will have a positive impact on Austrian exports in the medium term. Studies show that Austria benefits from such agreements. The climate debate opens up new market opportunities for domestic companies. Therefore, a strengthening in the area of climate-friendly technologies and production processes is necessary to maintain competitiveness. Possible effects of the COVID-19 epidemic are not taken into account in the forecast, as no reliable data are yet available. An estimate by the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) would dampen Austrian GDP growth by 0.01-0.02 percentage points. This figure doubles if service exports and indirect exports to China are taken into account. If the growth slowdown in China were to be much more severe or prolonged and lead to a global downturn, the decline in growth in Austria could account for up to 0.06 percentage points of GDP growth.
Global development of foreign trade Trade conflicts and additional trade barriers are dampening global foreign trade. Whether these conflicts will continue to escalate, shift or diminish is difficult to predict at present. After the dynamic development in previous years, FIW experts expect weaker global export growth in the future. The key drivers that spurred trade growth in the first two decades of the 21st century are fading or have even reversed. Exports are expected to grow at an average annual rate of 4.5 percent from 2020 to 2024. With this growth trend, the value of global exports, starting in 2018, will increase by about a quarter to 21,741 billion euros by 2024. Excluding the expected deterioration in the business environment over the forecast period, the model would suggest an average annual growth rate of 5.4 percent. China's share of global goods exports will level off. By 2024, China could reach a global export market share of 20 percent. For the EU - excluding the United Kingdom - FIW experts predict an export share of 15 percent in 2024 and 10 percent for the USA.
About the Competence Center Research Focus on International Economics (FIW) The Competence Center is a cooperation project of the Vienna University of Economics and Business Administration with the Universities of Vienna, Linz, Innsbruck as well as the Austrian Institute of Economic Research, the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies and the Economic and Social Computing Center. It offers a research platform, information on topics relevant to foreign trade, and access to economic databases. FIW is funded by the Federal Ministry of Education, Science and Research (BMBWF) and the Federal Ministry for Digitization and Economic Location (BMDW).

 

 

FIW in the media

7.11.2020: "Die Presse", Page: 17 Ressort: Economist Austria, Evening, Austria, Morning
Double-digit decline in exports
Expert panel calculates minus 12.4 percent. Vienna. The expert panel of the Competence Center Research Focus International Economics (FIW) sees a corona-induced contraction of 4.5 percent for the global economy this year, which is unique since the Second World War. Domestic exports of goods and services will collapse by 12.4 percent in real terms in 2020 compared to 2019, FIW writes in its October update to a February analysis that has now been published - the update thus took place before the second lockdown. Total imports shrink by 10.6 percent in real terms over the same observation period. For 2021, the short-term forecasts carried out assume strong growth. However, this could not fully compensate for the losses from this year. (APA)

 

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